On May 29th, the index fluctuated in the afternoon, and the three major stock indexes turned green collectively and then rebounded. In terms of sectors, the photovoltaic sector was strong all day, with Yuxing shares (300305) trading at a daily limit of 20 cm and Dongfang Risheng (300118) rising by more than 10%; The non-ferrous metal plate strengthened collectively, and the collective daily limit of Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and Huayu Mining (601020) (rights protection) was increased; The tourism sector rose in the afternoon, and Changbai Mountain (603099) hit a daily limit. In terms of decline, the power sector fell into a callback, and the new China-Hong Kong limit fell; The concept of copper cable high-speed connection went down, and Zhaolong Internet fell more than 6%, leading the decline; The pharmaceutical sector weakened, and Chinese medicine stocks fluctuated and adjusted, and Qidi Pharmaceutical was among the top losers. Overall, individual stocks rose more and fell less, with more than 2,700 stocks rising.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3111.02 points, up 0.05%; The Shenzhen Component Index reported 9414.98 points, up 0.25%; Chuangzhi reported 1811.07 points, up 0.27%.
On the disk, BC batteries, precious metals and real estate services were among the top gainers, while virtual power plants, high-speed copper cable connections and black household appliances were among the top losers.
Hot plate:
1, colored
Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hunan Gold (002155) and Hunan Silver are active.
Everbright Securities (Rights Protection) said that since May, the prices of black series, non-ferrous metals and precious metals have generally increased. Looking ahead, the expected change in demand caused by the recovery of global manufacturing cycle is the core logic of this round of commodity price increase, and it will be sustainable in the future. The short-term decline of nonferrous metals and gold prices is more a callback after the expected rush, and the long-term trend is still upward.
2. Photovoltaic
Yuxing, Guangxin Materials (300537), Trina Solar, Sharing Technology and other stocks strengthened.
In the news, it is reported that at the recent heavy meeting, the supply side released a major signal. On the one hand, it reminds us not to have an unbalanced upsurge in investment in the new energy industry. On the other hand, the new energy industry should not be the only focus, because the transformation of traditional industries can also develop "new productivity". Support for "three new products"-electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar (000591) panels must "adapt" to local conditions.
News:
1、[Informed person: China will invest about 6 billion yuan to encourage the research and development of all-solid-state batteries]The reporter learned from various sources that China will invest about 6 billion yuan in the research and development of all-solid-state batteries, including six enterprises including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300,750), BYD (002,594), FAW, SAIC, Weilan New Energy and Geely, or get basic research and development support from the government. A number of people familiar with the matter confirmed that this unprecedented project in the industry was led by relevant government ministries and commissions, encouraging qualified enterprises to carry out research and development on technologies related to all-solid-state batteries. It is reported that after strict screening, the project is finally divided into seven major projects, focusing on different technical routes such as polymers and sulfides.
2、[scientific apparatus, a cross-scale measurement benchmark for air and space, and the industrialization project of high-performance grating started construction]The breakthrough project of science and technology in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region —— scientific apparatus, a cross-scale measurement benchmark for air and space, and the industrialization project of high-performance grating started construction in Helinger New District on May 28th. With a total investment of about 1.25 billion yuan, the project will rely on Xi ‘an Jiaotong University, China Institute of Metrology, Aerospace Science and Technology (000901) Group and other advantageous scientific research units to jointly build scientific apparatus, a scientific research center and a high-performance grating industrial production base. After the project is completed, it will effectively solve the problem of continuous manufacturing of high-precision and large-format gratings, and realize the independent control of the core components of high-end equipment.
3、[After the introduction of the "517" new property market policy, more than 20 provinces have intensively followed the first-tier cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which have been implemented]The pace of the New Deal in the "517" property market has obviously accelerated. According to the reporter of Cailian, up to now, among the first-tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have followed suit. Among them, since May 29, Shenzhen has lowered the minimum down payment ratio and the lower interest rate limit of individual housing loans. According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 provinces have abolished the lower limit of mortgage interest rate and lowered the lower limit of down payment ratio. In key cities such as Tianjin, Dalian, Chongqing and Changsha, there are also dozens of public official announcements.
4、[Report: The utilization rate of large-size display panel factory will increase to nearly 90% in the third quarter of this year]According to the latest report of Omdia, a market research organization, as demand growth eventually exceeds capacity expansion, the utilization rate of large-size display panel factories will increase to nearly 90% in the third quarter of 2024, and will maintain a healthy development trend in the next few years. Charles Annis, director of display research at Omdia, said that in 2023, the weighted average size of LCD TVs increased by an incredible 2.9 inches. It is estimated that from 2024, the size of LCD TV will increase by 1.6 inches again, and will increase by 1.1 inches by 2025. The larger panel and 7% unit demand recovery will support the average factory utilization rate to remain above 82% in 2024. Using supply and demand analysis scenarios, the utilization rate is modeled. It is predicted that the utilization rate will gradually increase every year and will be close to 89% by 2026.
Institutional point of view:
Ming Ze Investment pointed out that at present, the market still maintains the pattern of shock consolidation, showing obvious characteristics of rapid plate rotation. Without the guidance of strong mainline market, it is difficult to have a big market for the time being and a big adjustment. The overall probability of the market will also maintain the upward trend of "going in two and retreating one" in the rotation. Short-term adjustment will not change the upward trend in the medium and long term. In the volatile market, investors should maintain a certain degree of patience and determination, not be disturbed by short-term market fluctuations, and be based on the long term. It is recommended to focus on the industry sectors with policy support and sustained improvement in fundamentals. We are still optimistic about the performance of technology growth stocks in the medium and long term, especially in the fields of AI+ industrial chain, humanoid robots, star chain communication, innovative drugs and so on. At the same time, the special valuation plate also needs to be focused on, which is a good allocation direction of low-wave dividend strategy. In addition, with the turning point of commodity cycle, driven by the relationship between supply and demand, resource commodities such as copper may continue the mid-line opportunities.
Citic Securities released a research report saying that on the supply side, the implementation of production cuts in Iraq and Russia in April was less than expected and the support was insufficient. We should pay attention to the new production reduction resolution that may be formed at the OPEC+ meeting in June, or support the upward trend of crude oil prices. On the demand side, since May 10th, China has issued a series of new real estate policies to stimulate domestic demand, which has boosted market sentiment, and the strong performance of commodities has driven the expectation of crude oil demand growth. Short-term attention is paid to the production reduction resolution formed by OPEC+June meeting and the disturbance of geo-events. It is predicted that the demand for crude oil will increase slightly in 2024-2025, and the supply-side production reduction and geo-events will support the oil price to fluctuate at a high level of 80-90 USD/barrel; From 2025 to 2030, the demand for crude oil will remain basically stable, and it is difficult for the demand side to support the sharp rise in oil prices. The supply side and geopolitical events will dominate the direction of oil price changes.