How big is the new consumption driving the economy?

Recently, Hebei, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other provinces have successively introduced implementation plans to expand consumption in key areas such as tourism, culture, sports and old-age care.

These "local versions" of the implementation plan are intensively introduced, and an important purpose is to actively expand emerging consumption, increase effective supply in the consumption field, and give full play to the basic role of consumption in economic growth.

In recent years, with the end of imitative wave-exclusion consumption stage in China, personalized and diversified consumption has gradually become the mainstream, and new consumption represented by service consumption, information consumption and fashion consumption has developed rapidly. The central and local governments are actively taking measures to release consumption potential to ensure that consumption continues to play a fundamental role in promoting economic development.

So, how big is the pulling effect of these new consumption on economic growth?

Promote economic growth to stabilize.

Consumption, investment and export are the "troika" to stimulate economic growth. For a long time in the past, China’s economic growth was mainly driven by investment and export, while consumption contributed less to China’s economic growth. In 2008, the contribution rate of China’s final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was only 45.7%, far below the level of most developed countries.

However, as governments at all levels speed up structural adjustment and promote industrial upgrading, the contribution of consumption to economic growth is constantly improving. In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of China’s final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 63.4%, ranking first in the "troika".

While the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth has steadily increased, the pace of consumption structure upgrading has also been further accelerated. In recent years, with the change of Chinese residents’ consumption from paying attention to the satisfaction of quantity to the pursuit of quality improvement, and from tangible goods to more service consumption, the sales of quality-upgraded goods such as communication equipment, automobiles, housing-related goods and cultural goods are booming, and service consumption such as mass catering, cultural entertainment, leisure tourism, education and training, medical and health care, and health preservation has become a new consumption hotspot.

Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China Economic Prosperity Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that China’s current economic aggregate has jumped to the second place in the world, and it is in the stage of moving from middle income to high income countries. In this process, people have gradually changed from satisfying food and clothing and material wealth to satisfying spiritual needs, which will objectively bring about a fundamental change in consumption behavior. Moreover, the process of consumption upgrading often has a strong agglomeration effect, and people’s demand for emerging consumption is often explosive, which greatly shortens the time period from germination to active consumption.

Many economists pointed out that, from the mechanism point of view, the pulling effect of new consumption on economic growth is no different from that of traditional consumption, but the rapid growth of new consumption will drive the development of service industry, better hedge the downward pressure on the economy and ensure the steady economic growth.

Ning Ji Zhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, wrote that "most of the service industries are not capital-intensive industries and are less affected by investment fluctuations; Most of them are rooted in the local market and are less affected by fluctuations in the international market; High degree of product differentiation, less affected by demand fluctuation; Mainly driven by consumption, and consumption growth has strong stability, so the development of service industry can smooth economic fluctuations and enhance economic stability. Because the service industry is not sensitive to economic cyclical changes, it plays an important role in ironing out economic fluctuations. "

As the proportion of service industry continues to increase, the fluctuation of China’s economic operation is obviously reduced. The data shows that from 2011 to 2015, the standard deviation of GDP growth rate was 1 percentage point, while from 2006 to 2011, the standard deviation of GDP growth rate was 2.1 percentage points.

Drive the economic structure to optimize.

Many experts admit that the biggest contribution of new consumption to macroeconomic operation lies in further promoting the optimization of economic structure.

"The development of new consumption requires suppliers of goods and services to continuously improve the supply level, especially to enhance the supply capacity of high-level and personalized products or services, and constantly form new consumption points." Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the upgrading of consumption structure will force the transformation and upgrading of supply to a great extent.

The rapid development of these new consumption has led to the adjustment of the supply system and the rapid development of the service industry, especially the middle and high-end service industry.

For example, with the rapid development of information consumption, a new generation of information technology, represented by cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence, has been bred and flourished, and the Internet has become the leading force of innovation-driven development, occupying the initiative in international competition.

From 2013 to 2016, China’s Internet industry maintained a rapid growth trend. The operating income of Internet access and related services, Internet information services, software and information technology services and other Internet service enterprises above designated size increased by 21.5%, 32.4%, 17.5% and 28.0% respectively.

In the process of the supply system represented by the service industry moving towards the middle and high end, the economic structure of the whole society is also changing quietly, the first is the employment structure.

In recent years, despite the shift in China’s GDP growth rate, the overall employment situation has remained stable, which is closely related to the continuous development of the service industry and the increasing employment scale. "At present, the proportion of the primary industry in China is gradually declining, and the proportion of the secondary industry is changing slowly. Even due to structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, the ability to absorb labor has declined, while the service industry has absorbed most of the labor transferred from the primary industry." Li Zuojun said.

With the formation of new consumption hotspots, the development of high-end service industry has entered the fast lane. In the first half of this year, the number of employees in service enterprises above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, which was 4.9 percentage points higher than that in the secondary industry. Among all the newly added employees in enterprises above designated size, the newly added employees in service industry accounted for 73.7%, which was 47.5 percentage points higher than that in the secondary industry.

Another important change brought by new consumption to the economic structure is also reflected in the investment structure. For example, with the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure, investment in people’s livelihood areas such as tourism, culture, sports, health and wellness, education and training has grown rapidly. In addition, with the rise of information consumption, e-commerce, digital media and other modern service industries, which are mainly supported by high technologies such as information networks, are emerging one after another, and investment has also maintained rapid growth.

Promote the development of kinetic energy and accelerate the transformation

With the rapid development of new consumption, the emerging service industry has shown a good trend of vigorous development. It is worth noting that the development of emerging service industries is different from traditional service industries, and it emphasizes the important value of innovation drive.

Pan Jiancheng said that the accelerated development of emerging service industries can not only drive a number of traditional industries such as bicycle manufacturing to accelerate the pace of transformation and renew their vitality, but also provide a broader stage and unlimited imagination for innovative entrepreneurs, so that they have more opportunities to shine, which will provide important support for the formation of a new pattern driven by innovation.

In recent years, with China’s active development of service-oriented manufacturing and producer services, and accelerating the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries, producer services have played an active role in helping manufacturing enterprises to reduce the cost of technological innovation, shorten the cycle of technological innovation, and realize the immediate transformation of innovation results, leading the new kinetic energy of China’s economic transformation and upgrading to accelerate growth. In 2016, the added value of industrial strategic emerging industries increased by 10.5% over the previous year, which was 4.5 percentage points higher than that of industries above designated size. At the same time of accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries, new products that meet the needs of structural upgrading and consumption are constantly emerging.

Xu Jianyi, director of the Service Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the continuous efforts of the "internet plus" policy and the active promotion of the national big data strategy, the number of Internet users, especially mobile Internet users, has increased rapidly, and the Internet economy has greatly changed people’s production and lifestyle, which has spawned many new modes of online and offline integration and promoted service innovation.

For example, the travel sharing platform represented by "mobike" and "Didi Chuxing" brings more convenience for people to travel; The knowledge service platforms represented by "Pig Eight Rings", "Zhihu" and WeChat WeChat official account provide new channels for service skill trading, knowledge realization and knowledge sharing. The housing sharing platform represented by "short rent Ant" and "short rent Pig" has greatly increased the utilization rate of vacant houses, and created a "human touch" short rent era.

In addition, with the rapid development of new consumption, the demand for personalization and diversification is released rapidly, which also provides more space for entrepreneurship and triggers a new wave of entrepreneurship.

Experts pointed out that the service industry does not require high capital scale, and the threshold and difficulty of starting a business are lower than that of manufacturing industry. In addition, in recent years, China has increased the power of simplifying administration, accelerated the pace of "reform of the business system" in the service industry, and comprehensively promoted the reform of the commercial system. The continuous release of the development potential of the service industry will promote the accelerated agglomeration of new development kinetic energy and make the service industry more dynamic in stimulating national economic growth in generate. (Economic Daily China Economic Net reporter Lin Huocan)

Domestic prices keep running smoothly-a perspective of CPI and PPI data in the first quarter

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 11th Title: Domestic prices keep running smoothly-a perspective of CPI and PPI data in the first quarter

Xinhua News Agency reporter Wei Yukun and Shui Jinchen

Since the beginning of this year, China’s prices have maintained a stable operation. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 11th. In the first quarter, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% on average compared with the same period of last year, and the national industrial producer ex-factory price index (PPI) dropped by 1.6% compared with the same period of last year, which continued to be an important "stabilizer" for global prices.

CPI runs in a reasonable range

Stabilizing prices is an important task to do a good job in this year’s economic work. This year’s government work report will set the annual increase in consumer prices at around 3%.

The latest data shows that in the first quarter, CPI continued to operate in a reasonable range, and the monthly increase was lower than the expected target of around 3%.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in January, due to factors such as the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month; In February, affected by factors such as falling consumer demand after the holiday and sufficient market supply, the year-on-year increase of CPI dropped by 1.1 percentage points compared with the previous month; In March, production and life continued to recover, and the consumer market was fully supplied. CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from last month.

In China’s CPI "basket" goods, food accounts for a relatively high proportion. Since the beginning of this year, the increase in food prices has continued to fall, from 6.2% in January to 2.4% in March.

From the ring comparison, the price of food changed from 2.8% in January to 1.4% in March. Dong Lijuan analyzed that in March, due to the abundant stock and the decline in consumer demand, pork prices decreased by 4.2% month-on-month; The price of fresh vegetables decreased by 7.2% month-on-month, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than that of last month.

"Vegetable production is greatly affected by meteorological conditions. Adequate sunshine and rising temperature in March are conducive to improving the growth rate of vegetables, resulting in an increase in the output of some vegetables and a downward price. In addition, due to the’ cold spring’ weather in the producing areas, the listing period of vegetables has been postponed, and the prices of lettuce, cauliflower and other varieties have fluctuated frequently. " Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said.

The increase in non-food prices has declined. In March, non-food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In non-food, service prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month; The price of industrial consumer goods changed from 0.5% last month to 0.8%.

"Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase of China’s core CPI has been fluctuating in the range of around 1%, which shows that the consumer prices of industrial consumer goods and services in China have remained stable." Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

PPI growth continued to fall.

Affected by factors such as the high comparative base in the same period of last year, the overall price of industrial products in China continued to decline. In the first quarter, PPI decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, including a decrease of 2.5% in March, which was 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the previous month.

From the ring comparison, in January, due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and the downward trend of domestic coal prices, the PPI decreased by 0.4% from the previous month. In February, the production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI turned flat. In March, due to the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy and the price trend of some commodities in the international market, the PPI remained flat.

Dong Lijuan analyzed that in March, domestic production and market demand continued to improve, key projects were accelerated, and the prices of steel, cement and other industries increased from the previous month. Among them, the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing all increased by 1.3% from the previous month. International input factors have driven down the prices of domestic oil and non-ferrous metals-related industries, among which the prices of oil and natural gas mining industry decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 0.4%. Affected by seasonal factors such as rising temperature, the demand for coal has decreased, and the price of coal mining and washing industry has dropped by 1.2%.

"The continuous decline in PPI growth will help improve the profit structure of upstream and downstream industries, ease the cost pressure of manufacturing enterprises in the middle and lower reaches, and stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects." Wang Likun said.

There is a solid foundation for keeping prices running smoothly.

Prices are related to economic operation and affect people’s lives. Experts said that with the gradual improvement of domestic demand, the supporting role for related prices will be enhanced, and the influence of international input factors still exists, and there is some pressure to stabilize prices. However, judging from the trend of the whole year, it still has a solid foundation to maintain the stable operation of prices.

Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that China’s grain production has maintained growth, and the grain output has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion Jin for eight consecutive years, and the inventory is relatively abundant; Pork production capacity is at a reasonable level and does not have the conditions for a sharp increase; Energy prices are stable. Last year, China effectively released advanced coal production capacity, and the energy self-sufficiency rate was above 80%. In recent years, the production of oil and natural gas has increased significantly, which is conducive to stabilizing energy prices.

The National Development and Reform Commission has made it clear that we should make overall plans to increase employment and income, and strengthen the supply and price stability of key commodities; The National Energy Administration requires that we do our best to ensure the supply and price stability of natural gas this year to ensure the demand for gas for people’s livelihood; Zunyi, Guizhou, established a unified "white list" system to guarantee supply, strengthened the mechanism of joint guarantee and supply, and ensured a strong and orderly supply of "rice bags" … Recently, all relevant departments and localities have made overall plans to ensure supply and stabilize prices.

Key enterprises have increased efforts to ensure supply and price stability, and have sufficient stocks. For example, Beijing Xinfadi Market will expand the "through train" to cover cities and build a green channel for featured agricultural products to enter Beijing; Meituan buys vegetables on the early-adopter channel of spring vegetables. Toona sinensis, shepherd’s purse, spring bamboo shoots and other fresh spring vegetables are well supplied. Cheap food markets and super discount channels are updated every day, and the prices remain generally stable.

"Looking forward to the whole year, China’s industrial and agricultural products and services are well supplied, production and marketing are smoothly connected, the market order is good, and the overall economic recovery trend will gradually appear in prices. It is expected that the overall price level will generally operate in a reasonable range." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said.

Country Garden is not Evergrande: Country Garden crisis marks the dawn of real estate instead.

The full text is 3,500 words in total and lasts about 5 minutes.

Source of this article: Liu Shengjun’s overall situation (produced by Liu Shengjun Micro Finance)

Text | Liu Shengjun

  • Others fear that I am greedy, others are greedy and I am afraid. -Buffett
  • If even Country Garden falls, it will be the last straw to crush the camel.
  • Extremes must be reversed. "Model student" Country Garden crisis, on the contrary, indicates that the real estate industry is about to usher in a turning point.
  • Evergrande’s problem is Evergrande’s problem; The problem of Country Garden is an industry problem. Different roads lead to different returns.

After Evergrande, Country Garden, the largest real estate company in China in terms of sales area, actually came to the brink of debt default in the first half of this year. It was predicted that the loss in the first half of this year exceeded 45 billion yuan, and its 11 domestic corporate bonds stopped trading, and its share price evaporated by nearly 50% in a week.

In fact, this is no exception. Like Country Garden, head housing enterprises such as Sunac and Greenland have a hard time. Which one is not trembling and treading on thin ice? Whoever falls first is likely.

On August 8th, Chen Qizong, a Hong Kong real estate tycoon, said with emotion, "Many of my old real estate friends, who have met here once a year for many years, are hard to meet now. A friend came to my place for dinner more than a year ago. He told me, can I make it this time? I dare not say. At last, when we said goodbye, my heart was sour. Of course, he is not bad now, but he was rescued. Another friend was more sure, and as a result, his end was not so good. "

According to statistics, Evergrande Group has a debt of 2.58 trillion yuan, Country Garden 1.7 trillion yuan, green land 1.2 trillion yuan and Sunac 1 trillion yuan. The liabilities of these four housing enterprises add up to nearly 6.5 trillion, which is equivalent to 5.4% of China’s GDP of 121 trillion in 2022!

Indeed, the head housing enterprises are too big and become unregulated "financial behemoths". Evergrande’s debt is equivalent to the asset size of the 19th largest bank in China. Anyone who studies finance knows the problem of "too big to fail". In 2008, the Federal Reserve blew up Lehman Brothers, a small bank, with a try attitude. Unexpectedly, the people who bombed the world went belly-up.

As a result, the "three red lines" were born. Everyone, including Country Garden, was dumbfounded by the fiercest regulation of China real estate in history.

Objectively speaking, it is necessary to prevent financial risks by limiting the "barbaric expansion" of head housing enterprises. However, in the implementation of the "three red lines", there has been a phenomenon of simplification, across the board, short-term long-term goals and protracted battles, which has led to the suspension of the whole real estate industry so far (what is the medium-and long-term solution to real estate? )。

The current situation of real estate is already very dangerous. All housing enterprises are unsafe. This further leads to the wait-and-see attitude of buyers. After all, no one wants to get into the trouble of "uncompleted residential flats". As a result, "negative feedback" began, and "guaranteeing the delivery of the building" did not help.

In July, house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide fell, and the number of cities reached the highest range in history: house prices in 49 cities fell. In July, the sales area of commercial housing dropped by 46.1% from the previous month. From January to July, investment in real estate development decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, which seriously dragged down economic growth.

We must stabilize the property and can’t hesitate any longer. There is no need to worry about letting go of the purchase restriction and "soaring house prices". At this time, the environment has changed, expectations have changed, and the money bag has shrunk. What we really want to prevent now is not the sharp rise in housing prices, but the unbearable weight of the real estate systemic crisis.

Although Country Garden is dangerous, it is not Evergrande after all.

1. Evergrande is a "big" word. It relies on gambling and gambling blindly and expands savagely, and has no real core competitiveness. Evergrande blindly diversified and made a strategic taboo. We can get a glimpse from Evergrande Football, Evergrande Super Headquarters (unfinished) and Evergrande Automobile. Country Garden, which rose from "Give you a five-star home" in 1995, has considerable strength in product building, property service and refined management. Country Garden was once praised as a "model student" by the industry, but it didn’t get a hollow reputation. In 2022, Country Garden delivered 700,000 houses, and Vivanco Evergrande added up more.

2, Xu Jiayin blindly high-profile, Yang Guoqiang is very low-key and pragmatic. Xu Jiayin is one or two of the highest-profile entrepreneurs in China, and he is keen on publicity. Evergrande has not only a football team, but also a national song and dance troupe. Ma Weidou once recalled the first meeting with Xu Jiayin: Xu Jiayin was wearing a coat and walking with the wind. "Teacher Ma is here!" Xu Jiayin shoulders a shake, coat slipped from the shoulder with the action, behind the bodyguard "pa" stretched out his hand and caught. After taking a seat, Xu stretched out his index finger and middle finger, and the bodyguard behind him took out a cigar with a bang. Xu Jiayin "where people go, the elevator is controlled", "except the secretary’s bodyguard and personal butler, other people, especially men, are not allowed to approach" and "generally bring your own cigars, and you need to be equipped with cigar holders and cigar scissors." Diet "only eat imported fruits, including Japanese greenhouse honeydew melon, Japanese fragrant Yin Qing Ti, Qingwang watermelon, especially sweet winter jujube and mango." When KTV sings, "drink royal salute and soda water". When Evergrande hired Ren Zeping with a high salary, it was essentially a hype (Liu Shengjun fired in the early morning! Ren Zeping was "torn by hand": bragging, inciting and greedy for heaven! I hope you can get out of the swamp of desire as soon as possible! )。

In contrast, Yang Guoqiang, a farmer, is one of the lowest-key businessmen, and even when he reached the top of China’s richest man in 2007, he did not receive any media interviews. It is said that Yang Guoqiang reads 100,000 words every day. Yang Guoqiang, who is less than 70 years old this year, transferred his shares to his daughter Yang Huiyan several years ago. The author visited Country Garden headquarters a few years ago, and Yang Guoqiang personally toasted every guest at the table, which was very approachable.

3. It is difficult to engage in real estate without involving political and business relations, which is an extremely dangerous zone. A staff member of Guangdong judicial system told China Economic Weekly that in Guangdong officialdom, most of Wan Qingliang’s friends who were real estate developers were famous. Wan Qingliang, a "fan", is also a frequent visitor to Evergrande. Evergrande invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the Danzhou "Haihua Island" project, which was finally stopped by the environmental protection department. In September 2019, Zhang Qi, former member of the Standing Committee of Hainan Provincial Party Committee and former secretary of Haikou Municipal Committee, was dismissed. Zhang Qi used his position as secretary of Danzhou Municipal Party Committee to promote the Haihua Island project in violation of regulations, involving a total area of 783 hectares of reclamation. As a result, a large area of coral reefs and white butterflies were permanently destroyed. Zhang Qi, who "swelled his purse and destroyed the ecology", was sentenced to no life. Like Wanda Group, some people in Country Garden will inevitably take bribes, but with Yang Guoqiang’s personality, he must be very cautious in political and business relations.

The only free private high school in China, Guohua Memorial Middle School.

Yang Guoqiang, a peasant.

Of course, it is undeniable that Country Garden also made mistakes:

First, enter the third-and fourth-tier cities in a big way. In 2015, the shantytown renovation was carried out with monetary resettlement. For a time, hot money was rolling in the third-and fourth-tier cities, and Country Garden took the lead in blowing the horn of entering the third-and fourth-tier cities. Up to now, 80% of the land is still in the third-and fourth-tier cities. Now it seems that this is a major misjudgment. The purchasing power of third-and fourth-tier cities is insufficient, and it is easy to fall into a liquidity dilemma overnight.

Second, the Malaysian forest city project has been defeated. The "Forest City" project started in 2015 and plans to invest more than 100 billion US dollars. This "green and intelligent future city" in southern Malaysia, close to Singapore, has now become a "ghost town". However, the original idea is not unreasonable: to seize the psychology of high-net-worth people to buy a house overseas and settle down, the house price is equivalent to a quarter of Singapore’s. It’s just that people are not as good as heaven, and they have encountered black swan events such as exchange rate turmoil, difficulties in foreign exchange outflow, and sudden changes in Malaysia’s political situation, which led to the project being called to a halt, and they have no choice but to stop eating in the storm that has never changed in a hundred years.

No one can always win a business, such as a war. The key is to learn from failure.

Country Garden’s asset-liability ratio was 82.3%, while Evergrande once reached 132.6%, and the latter was insolvent. In 2021, Country Garden only failed to meet the standard of "excluding the asset-liability ratio of advance receipts not exceeding 70%". By 2022, Country Garden achieved "three red lines" without stepping on it. Evergrande stepped on all three red lines. Country Garden still has a chance to reorganize and survive.

Country Garden can’t fail for a simple reason: at present, regardless of potential buyers or upstream and downstream housing enterprises, the nerves are already quite fragile, and Country Garden is the industry benchmark. In addition, the financial giant "Zhongzhi Group" is also in trouble with Country Garden. Zhongrong Trust, a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Group, has fallen into a storm of suspension. Among the huge financial assets of Zhongrong Trust, real estate accounts for 11%. Once there are problems in Country Garden and Zhongzhi, the potential chain reaction cannot but be frightening.

If even Country Garden falls, it will be the last straw to crush the camel. Yang Guoqiang once encouraged his manager with such a request: Even if Country Garden falls, it will be the last real estate enterprise in China.

Practice has proved that the simple idea of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" is not feasible. "Baojiaolou" seems to help, but in fact it often aggravates the difficulty of capital turnover of housing enterprises. As long as the housing enterprises do not return to normal state, the normal operation of the industry will be difficult to maintain. At this time, it is unrealistic to expect people to buy houses (the sudden braking of real estate is unbearable: it is suggested to move from "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" to "guaranteeing the main body"). "Protecting the main body of the market" should start from Country Garden.

Conclusion: Evergrande’s problem is Evergrande’s problem; The problem of Country Garden is an industry problem. Different roads lead to different returns.

Of course, Country Garden can’t wait for "Prince Charming" or "pie in the sky". Mo Bin, president of Country Garden, said in the announcement that Country Garden had encountered the biggest difficulty since its establishment. Wang Shi, an old friend of Yang Guoqiang, bluntly said, "At present, real estate enterprises are facing challenges one after another, especially large real estate companies are facing transformation. Lao Yang and I respect and admire each other. It is inevitable that there will be a shortage of funds during the transformation of Country Garden, but Mr. Xiang Yang Guoqiang will actively cope with the difficulties. ".

Country Garden faces a better environment than Evergrande. Evergrande is an early bird in the rectification of "three red lines". Now, the policy orientation has quietly changed. On July 24, 2023, the Politburo meeting proposed that "it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas,Adapt to the new situation that the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, and timely adjust and optimize real estate policies.Because the city makes good use of the policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "

On August 15th, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, responded to the Country Garden incident, saying, "At present, the real estate market is generally in the adjustment stage, and some housing enterprises have encountered certain difficulties, especially the debt risks of some leading housing enterprises have been exposed, which has affected market expectations. But we should see that these problems are phased,With the market adjustment mechanism gradually playing a role and the real estate market policy adjustment and optimization, the risks of housing enterprises are expected to be gradually resolved.. "

But in any case, the "big era" of real estate "big is good" has ended. Country Garden, which has been on the list of the world’s top 500 for seven consecutive years, please forget the charm of "the world’s top 500" from now on.

The author sends a message to Mr. Yang Guoqiang: Hold your ground steady and break your arm to survive. Learn from a painful experience, and from today on, get rid of the demons that "big is good". Face the new stage and new pattern of real estate, explore new models, and develop wholeheartedly with high quality, so as to "forget the pain without healing the scar" in the future (China real estate: new stage, new pattern, new model).

The historical picture that has not changed greatly in a hundred years is slowly opening.

Join the "study tour of entrepreneurs in secret places",

Join hands to cross the fog of world politics and economy,

Live up to Damei China,

Be a wise man in uncertain times.

Join the secret pursuit, pursue all the way, great beauty and true knowledge.

Liu Shengjun

Member of Shanghai Economic Committee of Zhi Gong Dang

An economist who insists on telling the truth

Political economy+great historical view

Participated in the Prime Minister’s Economic Symposium in 2014.

Chief economist of Tianjushi Group

Founder of Liu Shengjun Micro Finance

Chief Expert of Shandong Human Resources Development Promotion Association

Author of The Next Decade

Shandong Heze Dingtaoren

Can you go to a prestigious school by changing your clothes?

  "I’m sorry I didn’t tell you earlier. In fact, I can go to the’ 211′ university in 200 points." 360 Education Group launched a group of "sorry" marketing advertisements, which made the entrance examination for overseas Chinese students in "bred in an inner chamber, with no one knowing her" shine for a while. This is like a "life-saving straw" in the eyes of Ms. Song, a non-Beijing junior high school parent.

  "Go back to my hometown in Shandong to attend high school? As far as my son’s grades are concerned, I can only wander in the junior college. Staying in Beijing means that you cannot take the college entrance examination. " Ms. Song inquired about overseas Chinese joint examination training institutions in Beijing. When she came to Beijing Sanyi Shuren Education Office, several non-Beijing parents were waiting here, and they were all attracted by the agency’s advertisement of "100% copy rate".

  The person in charge of this institution revealed to parents that the entrance examination for overseas Chinese, students from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan Province jointly recruited by ordinary colleges and universities in China (referred to as National Joint Recruitment) is a "shortcut to prestigious schools". He sent a publicity page to every parent, which was filled with the admission scores of "985" colleges and universities in recent years, which was astounding. The admission score of a "985" college in Jilin Province was only 400 points. Training institutions simply refer to the national joint entrance examination as the joint entrance examination for overseas Chinese students.

  The person in charge "pointed out" that if non-Beijing parents want to let their children take the entrance examination for overseas Chinese students, they should apply for the Philippine green card or Malaysia’s second home plan, and then let their children obtain overseas Chinese status and stay abroad for two years, "exporting to domestic sales". When they sit in the entrance examination room for overseas Chinese students, the "indigenous people" will become "overseas Chinese students".

  270,000 yuan, "indigenous" turned into "overseas Chinese students"

  "Identity is more important than hard work!" Ms. Song visited several overseas Chinese students’ joint entrance examination training institutions in Beijing, and found that China’s "Wolf Dad" became the most successful case for parents. "Three children of" Wolf Dad "Xiao Baiyou were admitted to Peking University, relying not only on stick education, but also on overseas Chinese students’ joint entrance examination".

  However, what puzzled reporters was that although these institutions exploited policy loopholes, they acted boldly and openly, not only advertising on media platforms, but also organizing public publicity activities.

  The reporter entered the keyword of overseas Chinese entrance examination in a search engine and found about 1.89 million related results, most of which were advertisements of overseas Chinese students’ entrance examination training institutions. After opening these webpages, advertisements such as "Overseas Chinese Joint Entrance Examination, Direct Access to’ 985′ and’ 211′ Universities" and "Meet Peking University, Tsinghua and other top domestic universities" flooded the screen. Most institutions are headquartered in Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Shenzhen and other places. In the name of parents, the reporter made unannounced visits to Beijing Sanyi Shuren Education, Shanghai Xinye Education, Xiamen Qiaoan Education and Shenzhen Yuanmeng Education.

  In 2017, the qualification for the national joint recruitment clearly stipulates that overseas Chinese candidates must have obtained long-term or permanent residency in foreign countries, and have actually lived abroad for more than 2 years in the last 4 years (as of the end of the registration time) (living abroad for 9 months in a year is counted as one year, and continuous residence is not required).

  The reporter was told that if children want to take the joint entrance examination for overseas Chinese students, they must first obtain long-term or permanent residency in foreign countries. The Philippine Special Residence Retirement Visa and the Malaysian Second Home Program are "springboard" for domestic students to "transform" into overseas Chinese students because of their convenient operation and low cost. In particular, the Philippine special residence retirement visa is fast and secure, and it is regarded as the "first choice" by Xiamen Qiaoan Education and other three institutions.

  Shenzhen Dream Education staff introduced the whole process of "indigenous" becoming overseas Chinese students and taking the joint entrance examination. The first step is to attend a five-month preparatory class for overseas Chinese students in Shenzhen from August to January each year, focusing on English. The second step, from January to March every year, go through the immigration visa formalities, apply for a foreign international high school student status, and go to an international high school in Manila, Philippines. The third step is to study in an international high school and train in a special joint entrance examination course for more than 18 to 20 months. The fourth step is to return to the Shenzhen training base and participate in the 7-month pre-test training. The fifth step is to assist students to apply for the exam, guide them to fill in their volunteers, and provide psychological counseling before the exam, and accompany them to participate in the national entrance examination for overseas Chinese, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

  She said that at present, each student charges 276,000 yuan, mainly including 36,000 yuan for overseas Chinese students’ preparatory class training; 58,000 yuan for overseas Chinese students, mainly including immigration handling fees, consulting fees and registration fees for Philippine international middle schools; 146,000 yuan for studying in the Philippines, including tuition fees and special joint entrance examination training fees during attending international high schools in the designated campus in Manila; 36,000 yuan for training before returning to China.

  The reporter inquired about four overseas Chinese students’ joint entrance examination training institutions in succession, with the costs ranging from 320,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan. The number of applicants for each institution ranges from 6 to nearly 100, and the number of applicants is increasing year by year.

  "Our biggest advantage is that we have our own teaching base in Ipoh, the capital of Perak, Malaysia." The person in charge of Beijing Sanyi Shuren said that the base is a Chinese middle school invested and established by the institution. Domestic students organize classes independently here, and the teachers are also "experienced college entrance examination tutors in China". Because there is no separate textbook for the National Joint Recruitment, the teaching of this school is based on "People’s Education Edition textbooks, real questions and our own textbooks".

  During the unannounced visit, the reporter found that many institutions emphasize that they have their own schools or cooperative schools abroad. Xiamen Qiaoan Education emphasizes that the institution has set up an independent school in Chinatown, Manila, Philippines, which is fully closed, and only offers courses related to the joint entrance examination except sports and music.

  The relevant person in charge of Shanghai Heart Leaf Education emphasized the results. Last year was the first year for overseas Chinese students operated by the institution to take the national entrance examination. All seven students were admitted to domestic undergraduate colleges, the worst ones were admitted to Fujian Normal University, and the best ones were admitted to Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and other colleges. This year, about 20 overseas Chinese students from this institution participated in the national entrance examination.

  "Buy a house to send a’ migration’ green card and easily get into a famous school in China." Some domestic real estate companies also take the entrance examination for overseas Chinese students as the selling point and gimmick of their overseas real estate development. When Ms. Cheng from Sichuan visited the property of a well-known domestic real estate company in Malaysia, the staff of the real estate company told her that they had signed a cooperation agreement with well-known educational institutions for overseas Chinese students’ projects, and would set up an overseas teaching base in Malaysia to provide overseas Chinese students’ courses for the owners’ children and create a green channel leading to prestigious schools.

  400 points on "985", identity determines fate?

  "Don’t believe it, you can get into Shandong University with 400 points!" Seeing that Ms. Song was not confident about her son’s grades, Mr. Qi, the head of Beijing Sanyi Shuren, kept on enlightening her.

  "200 marks on’ 211’" "400 marks on’ 985’", is it really as easy for overseas Chinese students to take the entrance examination as an intermediary agency’s propaganda slogan? What is the score of this "mysterious" exam? How difficult is it?

  The reporter asked the overseas Chinese students about the difficulty of the joint entrance examination as parents of students. The staff of Xiamen Qiaoan Education told reporters not to worry: "Most of our students here have below-average grades and come from Fujian, Shandong and other places. However, there are also students with good grades in Xiamen and other places, in order to impact domestic first-class universities such as Peking University. " The staff promised that students with below-average grades would go to the institution to take the overseas Chinese student route, and if they worked hard, it would be no problem to be admitted to an institution; As long as you can attend classes on time and finish your homework, it’s no problem to be admitted to two colleges and universities.

  "25% junior high school knowledge, 30% senior one knowledge, 35% senior two knowledge, and 10% senior three knowledge." The staff of Beijing Sanyi Shuren has repeatedly stressed that the entrance examination for overseas Chinese students is much less difficult than the ordinary college entrance examination.

  Headquartered in Guangdong Education Examinations Institute, the Joint Admissions Office of China Colleges and Universities (referred to as the National Joint Admissions Office for short) will publish the minimum admission control scores for each batch of overseas Chinese students’ joint entrance examination every year from 2011 (except 2015). The reporter found that the score line has not changed for 5 years:

  Literature, history and science and engineering in the first batch of undergraduate colleges: 400 points. Literature, history and science and engineering in the second batch of undergraduate colleges: 300 points. The preparatory course is reduced by 20 points on this basis. Art and sports colleges (majors) are 200 points.

  In terms of the number of students admitted, according to the data provided by China Overseas Chinese Network, schools are different, such as Sun Yat-sen University and Xiamen University, which admit one or two hundred students every year; As few as Tsinghua University, there are only about 3 people every year; In the same school, the admission line changes year by year, and the difference may be great.

  On the afternoon of April 13th, the reporter called Shandong University and Jilin University as parents. The staff said that in recent years, in the national joint recruitment, the annual enrollment plans of the two schools were 30 and 20 respectively. Because there were relatively few candidates who applied for the school, the admission score was 400 points for the first batch of undergraduate minimum scores. Jilin University is generally dissatisfied.

  According to the staff of Beijing Sanyi Shuren, in addition to famous universities such as Peking University, Tsinghua and Fudan University, as well as famous overseas Chinese schools such as Xiamen University and Jinan University, many famous universities in inland provinces are not well-known among overseas Chinese, resulting in dissatisfaction in the national joint recruitment.

  As the parents of overseas Chinese students, the reporter also called some national joint recruitment colleges and universities. The staff of the Admissions Office of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics told the reporter that the school became the first batch of undergraduate admission institutions in the national joint recruitment for the first time last year. As long as it is higher than the minimum control score of the first batch of undergraduate admission, no matter whether it is the first choice or the second choice, it has the opportunity to be accepted by the school. Last year, only two qualified candidates were admitted to the school.

  Similarly, Harbin Institute of Technology only had four candidates who met the requirements to fill in the school last year. The staff of the Admissions Office of Northwest A&F University, who is also a "985" university, told the reporter that in the past two years, no candidates have applied for the school. "As long as they apply for our school and the score exceeds the minimum score of the first batch of undergraduate courses, they will have the opportunity to be admitted to our school."

  According to reports, Wuhan University, Dalian University of Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Xi ‘an Jiaotong University, China University of Political Science and Law, Sichuan University and other six universities scored 550 points, 480 points, 450 points, 450 points, 441 points and 420 points last year. Colleges and universities such as North China Electric Power University, as long as the first choice or the second choice applies for the school, and the score line reaches the minimum control score line of the first batch of undergraduate admission in the national joint recruitment, have the opportunity to be admitted to the school.

  Although many overseas Chinese students’ joint entrance examination agencies have been promoting "100% one-copy rate", the overall admission rate of overseas Chinese students in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is not that high. According to China Overseas Chinese Network, in the last three years, the number of applicants for the National Joint Recruitment was 4,500-4,700 each year, with a rate of 29% for one-year enrollment and 36% for two-year enrollment, and about 800-900 students failed to score 300 points each year.

  "The children of overseas Chinese who are really educated overseas can’t pass these mainland candidates." Liu Haifeng, dean of the Education Research Institute of Xiamen University, believes that the surge of overseas college entrance examination immigrants has caused a "crowding-out effect" in the joint entrance examination for overseas Chinese students from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and "these places of true overseas Chinese have been squeezed by overseas immigrants".

  The staff of the Admissions Office of Fudan University said that in the national joint recruitment in 2016, the minimum score of liberal arts was 621 points, compared with 562 points in 2014. The admission score fluctuates greatly, which is closely related to the number of applicants and the difficulty of the test paper.

  In Liu Haifeng’s view, the important reason behind this is that overseas college entrance examination immigrants have raised the scores of these schools. The staff of Beijing Sanyi Shuren also saw the soaring data: "There used to be several children, and there are more than 30 this year." He revised the agency contract again, and the fee was changed from 390 thousand yuan last year to 490 thousand yuan.

  Export to domestic sales, who will crack the "overseas Chinese students"?

  "Students who are usually in the same class are approaching the exam, and he has become an overseas Chinese student at the same table." Speaking of the entrance examination for overseas Chinese students, Liu Haifeng still remembers it vividly. More than ten years ago, there were many such "overseas Chinese students".

  According to Liu Haifeng’s memory, because there was no restriction of living abroad for two years at that time, many mainland candidates studied in China and went out just before the exam in exchange for overseas Chinese status.

  Around 2005, the "abnormal growth" of the number of overseas Chinese students seriously undermined the fairness of the national joint recruitment, infringed on the legitimate rights and interests of real overseas Chinese candidates, and caused a bad social impact. Official website, the Ministry of Education, said that due to the difference between the Joint Entrance Examination and the national college entrance examination, some intermediaries took improper measures to apply for overseas Chinese status for domestic students to take the Joint Entrance Examination, "which was particularly serious in 2005".

  This transformation "road map" is roughly like this: after signing up and paying 100,000 yuan to several hundred thousand yuan, the middleman guarantees that he will be admitted; Training, intermediaries run classes in well-known universities and give classes to "overseas Chinese students"; "transformation", through the snakehead to get the so-called green card; Examination, as an "overseas Chinese student" to participate in the joint examination.

  In order to obtain a foreign residence certificate for students, the "snakehead" often arranges students to travel to Malaysia, Laos and Vietnam for two days to one week.

  In order to plug this loophole, in 2006, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Public Security and the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council further clarified the qualifications for overseas Chinese students to apply for the national joint entrance examination, requiring candidates to obtain long-term or permanent residency in foreign countries and have actually lived abroad for more than two years in the last four years.

  According to media reports, in 2006, there were less than 30 overseas Chinese students in the national entrance examination of Shanghai, which fell back to the scale of more than 20 in 2004, while in 2005, there were 103 overseas Chinese students in the examination center. At that time, the overseas Chinese students in Xiamen test center fell off a cliff, and only 13 people took the exam that year. At that time, thousands of students in Beijing applied for the national joint entrance examination, but only 200 people got the admission ticket.

  However, training institutions soon found a way to solve the two-year residence restriction abroad, resulting in an increase in the number of overseas Chinese students. In 2016, only Xiamen Qiaoan Education claimed that more than 200 students participated in the national joint recruitment.

  "Candidates who have obtained overseas Chinese status through such opportunism are legal, although unreasonable." Yang Yiping, member of the Legal Advisory Committee of China Federation of Returned Overseas Chinese and former member of Shenzhen CPPCC, said.

  Are the participating universities and organizers aware of the "loopholes" in the joint entrance examination for overseas Chinese? The reporter consulted as a parent. The admissions offices of Jinan University and Huaqiao University clearly stated that the second home plan does not belong to long-term or permanent residency, and those who pass the project cannot apply for the school as overseas Chinese students only.

  The reporter dialed the telephone number of Xiamen University in succession, and the staff said that the school did not review whether the students were qualified for the national joint entrance examination. As long as the Xiamen Admissions Examination Committee Office recognizes it and can sign up in the department, the school will recognize it.

  Subsequently, the reporter called the office of Xiamen Admissions Examination Committee. The staff of the department also said that they could not answer: "We are only the registration confirmation point, and the qualification review is mainly handled by the Joint Admissions Office, and the special circumstances are decided by the Joint Admissions Office. If the joint recruitment office agrees, we will agree. " The reporter also called the Shanghai University Admissions Office, and the position of the department was similar to that of the Xiamen Admissions Examination Committee Office.

  The reporter dialed the telephone number of the National Joint Admissions Office. The staff told the reporter that some candidates had reported this problem to the institution before. They had already understood the situation and reported it to the Ministry of Education.

  "It’s not that we don’t care, but if the policy hasn’t changed, we can’t limit them." The staff member said that according to the current National Joint Recruitment Guide, applicants can apply as overseas Chinese students if they hold and meet the information and conditions such as China passport, long-term foreign residency, accumulated residence abroad for two years in the four years before registration, three-year high school grades, high school graduation certificate and so on. The enrollment policies such as this brochure are jointly formulated by the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council, the Ministry of Public Security and other ministries, and the National Liaison Office is only responsible for implementing the existing policies.

  The staff repeatedly stressed: "We can’t judge which candidates are registered through the intermediary." Taking the candidate who registered through the Malaysia Second Home Program as an example, the staff said that at present, the agency can only see that the candidate is an overseas Chinese in Malaysia, but it is impossible to distinguish whether the candidate is a true overseas Chinese or an identity operated through an intermediary.

  Yang Yiping suggested that since the sole purpose of most "overseas Chinese students" who take advantage of loopholes is the national joint recruitment, their parents will not have the experience of living abroad for a long time like most overseas Chinese parents. Relevant state departments can introduce some restrictive clauses in this respect. In addition, as the Philippine Special Residence Retirement Visa, Malaysia’s Second Home Program and other projects have become the "hardest hit areas", the relevant departments should also introduce restrictive clauses for candidates who have obtained the qualification of overseas Chinese students through these projects. (Reporter Liu Bozhi Liu Dun)

  [Lawyer said] Shovel off the black interest chain behind "overseas Chinese students"

  Wang Yongjie

  Although the behavior of "changing face" of domestic students to "overseas Chinese students" does not constitute an illegal act, it has seriously affected the national joint recruitment ecology. The influx of "rich and willful" overseas Chinese students not only encroaches on the indicators of real overseas Chinese students, reduces their enrollment ratio, but also impacts the quality of higher education in China, which is unfair to other domestic students.

  To this end, the competent authorities should strengthen the examination of candidates’ registration qualifications, maintain a high-pressure attack on violations of laws and regulations, and find and investigate them together. To provide false registration materials to obtain the qualification of "overseas Chinese students", verified before the exam, to cancel their registration, examination qualification; If it is verified after the exam, it is necessary to cancel its college entrance examination results and admission qualifications; If it is verified after admission, its admission qualification shall be cancelled; Even if you have graduated, you should cancel and withdraw your student status and academic certificate. In addition, it is necessary to eliminate the "black barrier" of information, promote the all-round disclosure of overseas Chinese students’ application and admission information, and put it in the sun.

  At present, parents and intermediaries of "overseas Chinese students" are "digging" loopholes in laws and regulations, and the competent authorities should fill or repair possible policy loopholes as soon as possible, and intercept and accurately crack down on all kinds of illegal acts that exploit loopholes. Because most parents of "overseas Chinese students" work and live in China for a long time, they will not have the experience of working and living abroad like real parents of overseas Chinese students. The competent department should try to find a way and set a threshold in this regard, and ask candidates to provide materials in this regard. Even if this problem can’t be completely eradicated, it will cost opportunists a great deal, and the national joint recruitment can’t become the "crooked road" for opportunists to enter famous domestic schools.

  The reason why this phenomenon is getting worse and worse, such "immigration intermediaries" and "training institutions" have been publicized everywhere, and even hyped up in the open media, which has played a role in fueling the situation. Through the network of relationships, such institutions exploit policy loopholes to help domestic students apply for long-term or permanent residency in the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, and collect benefits from them. Relevant departments should be brave enough to show their swords. They should not let them go because they are "legal", but should effectively crack down and cut off the black interest chain behind "overseas Chinese students" by standardizing the conditions for applying for the exam. (Author Wang Yongjie, chief lawyer of Beijing Zeyong Law Firm)

A man in Jinjiang scoured old houses for construction waste and put ancient houses in southern Fujian into containers.

  Minnan. com, August 24 th, put the ancient houses in southern Fujian into containers? You heard me right. It took Mr. Lin from Anhai, Jinjiang, two years to do this. Haidu reporter went in to experience it yesterday and was instantly shocked. How did he do it?

Closed patio

Closed patio

  Mr. Lin’s house is built on his own homestead in Anhai Town. From the appearance, except for the exquisite wooden appearance on the second floor, it is no different from ordinary houses, but the back room is unique. All kinds of common building components of ancient houses in southern Fujian gather together: red brick floor, stone trough as basin, stone mortar as tea urn, eaves tile as beam, and even the wall is made of "bricks into stones". Although the space is narrow, it is full of the essence of ancient houses in southern Fujian.

The stairwell absorbs old tiles, old flowerpots and other elements.

The stairwell absorbs old tiles, old flowerpots and other elements.

  If it weren’t for Mr. Lin’s guidance, I couldn’t see at all that the foundation of this two-story Minnan residential style house was actually many stacked containers. Mr. Lin told Haidu reporter that most of the houses are made of large containers, covering an area of more than 100 square meters, with four rooms and two halls on each floor.

  Mr. Lin is 42 years old. He used to do business, but now he is obsessed with building his own world. He recalled that when he lived in an old house in the countryside as a child, he looked at the water curtain of the old eaves in the world and felt comfortable in the house, warm in winter and cool in summer. Later, the old house was razed to the ground and replaced by the cramped cage life in the high-rise building, which made him very sad.

From the outside, it looks like an ordinary house. If you look closely, you can find the components of the container.

From the outside, it looks like an ordinary house. If you look closely, you can find the components of the container.

  In order to rebuild the old house in his memory, since two years ago, he has been busy in various demolition sites in Jinjiang, scouring out all kinds of construction waste from the old house that is about to be demolished: red bricks, stone mills, tiles, tile tubes, fair-faced bricks, etc., and digging out beams carefully carved with Chinese fir from the broken tiles. Plus some wooden windows and ancient beds that I bought myself, the belongings of the ancient houses in southern Fujian are all together.

  In the past two years, Mr. Lin, who has no architectural experience, has worked as a carpenter and a plumber, and finally transformed the container into an ancient residence in southern Fujian. Miraculously, the house is warm in winter and cool in summer, and Mr. Lin still has a quilt on his old wooden bed. "In this big summer night, not only do you need air conditioning, but you also need to cover the quilt!" (Haidu reporter Chen Zixuan text/map)

Metformin, seven more pharmaceutical companies entered the market.

Recently, National Medical Products Administration official website showed that the application for listing of metformin tablets (Ⅰ), (Ⅴ) and (Ⅴ) submitted by Hunan Huize Biomedical Technology/Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was accepted by CDE. On April 11th, Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. also submitted the application for listing of metformin tablets (VI) and (V) and was accepted. 

50591681686030045 67341681686030248

China is the largest country in the world, and the number of patients ranks first in the world. The incidence of diabetes is increasing and showing a trend of younger age.

According to the data of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), the number of adult diabetic patients in the world reached 537 million in 2021. As the country with the largest number of diabetic patients in the world, the number of diabetic patients in China increased from 90 million to 141 million in the past 10 years (2011 -2021), with an increase of 56%, equivalent to 13% of adults suffering from diabetes, and there are about 72.83 million adults.

As the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is complex, with the progress of the disease, single oral hypoglycemic drugs often cannot maintain ideal blood sugar control for a long time, and there will be many complications. More than 60% of patients need to be combined with other hypoglycemic drugs. Compound hypoglycemic preparation has the advantages of strong efficacy, high safety, convenient use, high compliance and high cost performance, and is widely used at present.

Metformin is suitable for adult patients with type 2 diabetes who are treated with eglinide and metformin hydrochloride. It is a simple compound single-tablet drug. Engelgin belongs to sodium-glucose cotransporter 2(SGLT-2) inhibitor, which can reduce the glucose reabsorption in kidney. Metformin hydrochloride can improve insulin sensitivity by increasing the intake and utilization of peripheral sugar.

The mechanism of the two hypoglycemic components is complementary, which can provide more powerful and lasting blood sugar control, and can reduce the number of tablets taken by patients, thus increasing the compliance of patients, and the improvement of compliance is also helpful to further improve blood sugar control.

The original research of metformin englejing was conducted by Boehringer Ingelheim and Lilly. In 2015, it was approved for listing by the US Food and Drug Administration, and in 2019, it was approved by National Medical Products Administration to enter the domestic market under the trade name of Ou Shuangjing.

In June, 2021, Hangzhou Zhongmei Huadong Pharmaceutical Company’s Metformin Engglinide Tablets (I) was approved to be listed in National Medical Products Administration, becoming the first imitation in China, and was exclusively included in the National Medical Insurance Catalogue Class B through medical insurance negotiation in December of the same year. The medical insurance price was 1.21 yuan/tablet (each tablet contained 500mg of Metformin Hydrochloride and 5mg of Engglinide). At present, Hangzhou Sino-American Huadong Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is still the only enterprise in China that has been approved to produce metformin.

According to the IQVIA database, the global sales of metformin Engel in 2020 was 505 million US dollars, an increase of over 30% compared with 2019.

In recent years, the sales scale of oral compound hypoglycemic agents in China is also growing rapidly. According to the data of Minenet, the market of oral compound hypoglycemic agents has increased from 800 million yuan in 2019 to over 2.2 billion yuan in 2021, with the growth rate as high as 58% and 68% in 2020-2021. The market potential of oral compound hypoglycemic agents is exploding.

66561681686030423

According to Frost&Sullivan data, the global diabetes drug market will reach 69.7 billion US dollars in 2020, and the Chinese diabetes drug market will reach 63.2 billion yuan. It is expected to reach 100 billion-level market in 2024, and will grow at a high speed with a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2030. The diabetes field has become a field that major pharmaceutical companies will strive for.

Hypoglycemic drugs are constantly innovating, and they don’t stop rolling up. Take Engelje as an example. At present, there are 5 domestic enterprises with production approval, and 18 enterprises are in the production reporting stage. It should be noted that Engelje tablets have been included in the fourth batch of national adoption in February, 2021, which shows the expectations of enterprises for Engelje tablets. However, judging from the global sales of Engelje (US$ 8.2 billion in 2022), the domestic market is far from saturated (over 400 million yuan in 2021).

Under the condition that the single drug track is crowded, some enterprises began to lay out compound preparations. Since this year, seven enterprises have submitted the application for the listing of metformin engeglinide tablets/sustained-release tablets, plus two in 2021, at present, a total of nine enterprises are in the production reporting stage of metformin engeglinide.

It is worth mentioning that although the sales of metformin monotherapy have declined in recent years, it can still be seen everywhere in the market, especially in pharmacies.

At present, the best-selling hypoglycemic compound preparations in the market are mainly metformin plus another kind of hypoglycemic drugs, such as "metformin+sulfonamide urea derivatives", "metformin +DPP-4 inhibitor" and "metformin +SGLT2 inhibitor". In addition, there are more and more combinations of compound hypoglycemic preparations, such as "SGLT2 inhibitor +DPP-4 inhibitor", which has been reported for production by enterprises.

END Author | Ryan Source | Medicine Chunqiu

In 2023, there were 79 co-opted places for academicians of China Academy of Sciences.

  Cctv news: Recently, the Department of China Academy of Sciences issued the "Guide for Co-election of Academicians of China Academy of Sciences in 2023". The main contents are as follows:  

  Academician system is an important system established by the party and the state to establish the orientation of respecting knowledge and talents, and to condense outstanding talents to serve the country. Academician of China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as Academician) is the highest academic title in science and technology established by the state.

  In order to do a good job in the co-option of academicians in 2023, in accordance with the spirit of deepening the reform of the academician system and relevant regulations, the Guide for Co-option of Academician of China Academy of Sciences in 2023 was formulated.

  I. Subject Direction and Quota Allocation Scheme in Co-opted Fields

  In 2023, there will be 79 additional places for academicians of China Academy of Sciences.

  (1) Department of Mathematical Physics

  1. There are 4 mathematicians, including no less than 2 basic mathematicians and no less than 1 applied mathematicians.

  2. Physics I (including condensed matter physics, optics, acoustics and atomic and molecular physics, etc.) 3, including acoustics 1, and there are not less than 2 experimenters in the 3 places.

  3. Physics II (including high-energy physics, nuclear physics, etc.), mechanics and astronomy.

  4. 1 quantum information.

  5. One in physics (experiment) and photoelectric information (emerging and interdisciplinary fields).

  (2) Ministry of Chemistry

  1. 4 inorganic chemistry, analytical chemistry and environmental chemistry, including 1 nuclear and radiation chemistry.

  2. Organic chemistry, polymer 3.

  3. Physical chemistry and chemical engineering.

  4. One carbon-neutral chemical and chemical revolutionary technology.

  5. Chemical biology and major drug creation (emerging and interdisciplinary fields).

  (3) Department of Life Sciences and Medicine

  1. Four in basic biology.

  2. 4 medical students.

  3. 4 agronomy, ecology and evolution, including 1 biological taxonomy.

  4. One new infectious disease prevention and control and biosafety.

  5. One in bioinformatics and intelligent medicine (emerging and interdisciplinary fields).

  (4) Department of Geography

  1. Geology I (including sedimentology, paleontology, structural geology, petroleum and natural gas geology, Precambrian geology, etc.) 2.

  2. Geology II (including geochemistry, mathematical geology, mineralogy, mineral deposit and mineralogy, petrology, Quaternary geology, hydrogeology, engineering geology, etc.) 2.

  3. Geography (including physical geography, human geography, geographic information science, remote sensing, soil science, ecological environment, etc.) 2.

  4 atmospheric ocean (including atmospheric science and marine science) 2, including marine science not less than 1.

  5. 2 geophysics (including solid geophysics, space physics, geodesy, etc.).

  6. 1 planetary geological environment and exploration.

  7. One in Earth System Modeling and Artificial Intelligence (emerging and interdisciplinary fields).

  (5) Ministry of Information Technology and Science

  1. Information I (including computer science and technology, microelectronics science and technology, control science and engineering, instrumentation and sensing, etc.) 4, including 1 computer theory and artificial intelligence.

  2. Information II (including electronic science and technology, optical engineering, information and communication engineering, etc.) 3.

  3. 1 cyberspace security.

  4. 1 mathematical foundation of information science and technology (emerging and interdisciplinary fields).

  (6) Department of Technology

  1. 4 materials (including materials physics, materials science and metallurgy, materials chemistry and functional materials, materials processing and structural materials, nuclear materials and special materials, etc.), including 1 high-end equipment structural material and processing technology.

  2. Project Ⅰ (including mechanical engineering, power engineering and engineering thermophysics, electrical engineering, aerospace science and technology, armament science and technology, nuclear science and technology, etc.) 4 persons.

  3. Project II (including mechanics, architecture and urban and rural planning, civil and traffic engineering, water conservancy engineering, mining, oil and gas engineering, etc.) 3.

  4. 1 ship and ocean engineering.

  5. Integration of doctors and workers (emerging and interdisciplinary fields).

  (7) Specially recommended areas

  The number of places is 6, which will be arranged separately.

  Second, the qualifications of candidates

  According to the Implementation Measures for Co-election of Academician of China Academy of Sciences (for Trial Implementation), the candidate for academician should be a citizen of China who meets the following basic conditions.

  1. Abide by the Constitution and laws, love the motherland, have good conduct and a decent style of study.

  2. Engaged in the research of natural science, technical science and engineering science, made systematic and creative achievements in the field of science and technology, and made outstanding contributions to the cause of science and technology in China or the progress of human civilization.

Do a good job in ensuring the delivery of houses, play a "combination boxing" and take many measures to ensure the "warmth" of people’s livelihood

CCTV News:On May 17th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that together with the General Administration of Financial Supervision and other departments, it will launch a work plan to ensure the delivery of urban commodity housing projects, focusing on enabling ordinary people to get houses that have passed the inspection as scheduled according to the contract, and including more projects in the "white list" to give financing support.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that through the work plan, we will fight hard to ensure the delivery of commercial housing projects, prevent the risk of disposal of unfinished projects, promote the timely and quality delivery of projects, and let the people get the houses that have passed the inspection as scheduled according to the contract.

Dong Jianguo, deputy director of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said: "If it is still impossible to hand over the house by exhaustive means, the judicial approach should be taken. In judicial disposal, the legitimate rights and interests of buyers should also be protected in the first place."

Dong Jianguo said that through the plan, the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing will be further fully utilized, and more projects will be included in the "white list" to provide financing support. At present, 297 cities at prefecture level and above have established the coordination mechanism of real estate financing. In addition, it is necessary to compact the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises and financial institutions. Local governments should assume territorial responsibility, and promote the cooperation between housing and construction, financial management, public security, natural resources, auditing and other departments and the courts, so as to perform their duties and form a joint force. Real estate enterprises should bear the main responsibility, formulate a "one project, one policy" disposal plan, actively dispose of assets and raise funds from various sources to ensure the timely and quality delivery of projects. Financial institutions should implement the due diligence exemption regulations, so as to "make full use of loans" for eligible projects, speed up the approval and issuance of loans, and support the delivery of project construction.

Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Do a good job of ensuring delivery around four key points

The State Council Press Office held a routine briefing on the State Council policy on May 17th. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that it will do a good job in ensuring the delivery of houses around four key contents.

First, lay a solid foundation for the delivery of commercial housing projects, and prevent the disposal of unfinished risks. In accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, we will classify and dispose of commercial housing projects under construction that have been sold but not delivered, promote project construction and delivery, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers. The second is to further play the role of urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects. The city government promotes projects that meet the "white list" conditions to "make every effort", and commercial banks "make every effort to lend" to compliance "white list" projects to meet the reasonable financing needs of projects under construction.

Dong Jianguo, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the third is to promote the digestion of existing commodity housing. The city government insists on "ordering according to needs" and can organize local state-owned enterprises to purchase a part of existing commercial housing at reasonable prices for affordable housing.

In addition, all localities will properly dispose of the revitalized stock of land. At present, the stock land that has not been developed or started and not yet completed will be properly disposed and revitalized through government recovery and acquisition, market circulation and transfer, and enterprises’ continued development, so as to promote real estate enterprises to alleviate difficulties and reduce debts and promote the efficient use of land resources.

State Financial Supervision and Administration: The coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing will be established and improved.

At present, 297 cities at prefecture level and above have established real estate financing coordination mechanisms. On May 17th, the State Financial Supervision and Administration said that it will establish and improve the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing, continue to adhere to the policy of the city, fully support the financing and completion delivery of the projects that should be continued, earnestly do a good job in ensuring the delivery of houses, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers.

The coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing is mainly to summarize the real estate projects within its jurisdiction and review the "white list" projects according to the conditions and standards. For projects that do not meet the conditions and standards for the time being, it is necessary to urge all parties concerned to intensify rectification and effectively solve the corresponding problems to make them meet the conditions and standards of the "white list" projects.

Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Financial Supervision and Administration, said that the "white list" was voluntarily declared by the real estate project company, and the districts and counties in the city were pre-examined and put forward the list. The urban coordination mechanism organizes screening and review, and those that meet the conditions and standards are included in the "white list". Those that do not meet the conditions and standards should be rectified to promote problem solving and form a closed-loop management mechanism.

Xiao Yuanqi said that the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing should be responsible for optimizing the supervision process of pre-sale funds and reasonably confirming the amount of pre-sale supervision funds. At the same time, it is necessary to compact the responsibilities of real estate enterprises and real estate project companies.

Ministry of Natural Resources: Policies and measures such as disposal of idle land will be introduced soon.

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Natural Resources said on May 17 that it is ready to introduce policies and measures to properly dispose of idle land and revitalize existing land, and support local governments to properly dispose of idle existing residential land that has been sold by means of recovery and acquisition as appropriate to help enterprises solve their difficulties.

The Ministry of Natural Resources said that idle land should be disposed of in strict accordance with the law, and support for the revitalization and utilization of existing land should be increased. Supporting enterprises to optimize development is mainly to eliminate obstacles to development and construction, reasonably exempt from liability for breach of contract caused by natural disasters and epidemics, and allow enterprises to rationally adjust planning conditions and design requirements according to procedures to better meet market demand.

Liu Guohong, vice minister of natural resources, said that promoting market circulation and transfer is mainly to play the role of the secondary market of land, support advance registration and transfer with mortgage, and encourage transfer or cooperative development. Support local governments to recover idle land at reasonable prices in accordance with the principle of "ordering according to needs" for the construction of affordable housing.

Liu Guohong said that in order to implement the main responsibility of the municipal and county governments, cities and counties are required to establish a coordinated decision-making mechanism to dispose of idle and revitalize existing land and stick to the policy bottom line.

Expert: The United States is trying to reorganize the Arab version of NATO and wants to "kill with a knife" to contain Iran.

  CCTV News:America is out of the group again! On the 3rd, just after the International Court of Justice ruled that Iran had won the lawsuit against the United States, the United States withdrew from the US-Iran friendship treaty. For the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the United States and Iran, withdrawing from the group is only the beginning.

  In May this year, the United States announced its withdrawal from the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue and restarted sanctions against Iraq. In July, Iran filed a complaint against the United States to the United Nations International Court of Justice, based on the Treaty of Friendship, Economic Relations and Consular Rights signed by the two countries in 1955.

  On October 3, the International Court of Justice issued a communique saying that it was initially determined that the International Court of Justice had "jurisdiction" over the case and demanded that the United States immediately stop sanctions against Iranian humanitarian goods and goods and services related to civil aviation safety.

  Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif welcomed the decision in a social media post on the 3rd, calling it "another failure to sanction the addicted United States" and "a victory of legal order".

  If the ruling of the International Court of Justice is implemented, it will greatly alleviate Iran’s economic difficulties. Because following a series of sanctions against non-energy fields in August this year, the United States will restart sanctions against Iran’s energy industry, oil trading, central bank trading and other fields on November 5, and the situation is urgent.

  However, after the ruling was announced by the International Court of Justice, Pompeo immediately said that the US-Iran friendship treaty was terminated, and pointed out that Iran’s past "malicious behavior" made it "absurd" to file a lawsuit in the International Court of Justice.

  According to a report on the website of "Russian TV Today" on the 4th, the 10-year US military aid plan for Israel will come into effect on the 8th and will be implemented in the new fiscal year. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomes this.

  On September 14th, the United States and Israel formally signed a new memorandum of understanding, which finalized what was called "the largest single bilateral military assistance in American history".

  According to this new agreement, from the fiscal year of 2019 to 2028, Israel will receive about 3.8 billion U.S. dollars in aid each year, including 3.3 billion U.S. dollars in foreign military financing and 500 million U.S. dollars in missile defense cooperation program, provided that it must purchase American weapons. The State Council bluntly said that the plan aims to protect Israel from "all potential regional rivals", but the most important thing is to avoid the influence of "terrorist organizations sponsored by the Iranian regime".

  Li Shaoxian, dean of the Institute of Arab Countries in China, Ningxia University, said that recently, the United States has been trying its best to reorganize the so-called Arab version of NATO, and one of its important purposes is to "kill people by the sword" to contain Iran.

Can the end-to-end model solve the last mile problem of autonomous driving?

In smart car technology, high-level autonomous driving is a difficult problem that major manufacturers and most Internet giants are trying to overcome. Whoever can take the lead in promoting the landing of advanced autonomous driving technology will be able to take the lead in automobile sales. In the high-order autonomous driving technology, the end-to-end model is the most discussed by all parties.

Compared with the previous model, end-to-end seems to have become the only way for advanced autonomous driving. So what is the end-to-end model? What is the development trend of end-to-end model in China? These problems are worthy of people’s attention.

What is an end-to-end model?

Speaking of the end-to-end model, it is natural to be inseparable from the ChatGPT of this year’s fire. ChatGPT itself is an end-to-end model, that is, by inputting words, customers can get the answers they want.

Whether it’s PPT or video, ChatGPT and other big models may spit it out. In this process, the most critical is the AI model. It can gain insight into users’ needs and produce the content they need.

In the field of autonomous driving, the most famous end-to-end model is Tesla’s FSD V12. The input of this model is all kinds of image data obtained by the camera; The output end is the vehicle control instructions, including steering, acceleration and braking. In the middle, it is a big model that Tesla is proud of.

In the scene of end-to-end model, when the vehicle recognizes some traffic signs or encounters various situations, it will automatically judge according to the past learning situation, instead of looking for a solution to this problem in the code according to various preset preconditions like the traditional model.

What are the advantages of the end-to-end model?

In contrast, in the past, the traditional autopilot model was based on the working conditions set by engineers in advance. The choice of driving behaviors, including lane changing, parking and even overtaking, has been set in advance. This will bring two problems:

Autopilot models are becoming more and more complex. Since each module usually only performs one driving behavior, the automatic driving algorithm needs to include the driving behavior of human drivers as much as possible. Therefore, the code of traditional autonomous driving technology usually has hundreds of thousands of lines of code. This will bring higher and higher requirements for the computing power of smart driving chips. Tesla’s FSD V12 has only 2000 lines of code; While FSD V11 has an astonishing 300,000 lines of code.

Unable to solve the long tail condition. No matter how full the preliminary test and certification are, no autopilot algorithm can say that all the long tail conditions are included. Then once you meet a new long tail working condition, it is very likely that traffic accidents will occur and even life injury accidents will occur.

The best case is that the project operated by GM’s Cruise in California encountered various working conditions that had not been encountered in the previous experimental stage at the beginning of its launch, which led to casualties, forcing the California Highway Bureau to suspend the license of Cruise for a time.

Where is the end-to-end difficulty?

To achieve an end-to-end model, there are two main limiting factors: massive data and large computing power. Only with the blessing of these two factors can the end-to-end model land. In order to make the end-to-end model closer to human drivers, its large model often needs to contain hundreds of millions of parameters. Only with more parameters can the driving characteristics and habits of human drivers be better simulated, and the performance of the model will be better. In these two areas, Tesla has a clear first-Mover advantage.

Not long ago, Tesla just got the certification of domestic data security and privacy protection, and was allowed to enter the government department compound. The reason why Tesla didn’t get the relevant recognition before was that the cameras in each car were collecting all kinds of data in real time and uploading them to the server for training the FSD algorithm.

Looking around the world, Tesla’s newly sold models every year are constantly providing data for the FSD V12 algorithm for the latter to continue to optimize learning.

It is worth mentioning that Tesla’s car also has a "shadow mode". It will compare the deviation between the driving behavior of the owner and the driving behavior determined by the automatic driving system, upload the relevant data together, and also optimize the algorithm.

At the same time, in order to be able to calculate the massive data collected, Tesla also needs a supercomputer center. The core of supercomputing center is the large computing power chip. For this reason, Tesla not only bought a large number of NVIDIA H100 chips, but even developed Dojo chips. The unit price of the former is as high as $35,000, while the investment in research and development costs of the latter is hundreds of millions.

For any enterprise, this is not a small expense. Domestic car companies have basically not been able to develop their own large computing chips. NVIDIA H100 chip has already become a product on the export control list of the United States, and it is difficult for domestic car companies to obtain it.

So is it possible to achieve the end-to-end model with massive data and large computing power? The answer is also no.

From the above description, we can find that the end-to-end model is actually a "black box". If there is an error in the model operation, it is actually difficult for researchers to find out what part of the model is wrong and directly adjust the model.

Theoretically, only through more training, or increasing more parameters and trying to adjust some model parameters can we try to solve the problem. Therefore, whether the autopilot model based on end-to-end technology can finally meet the needs of autopilot technology at the safety level is still very uncertain.

Even so, compared with the traditional autopilot model, the advantages of the end-to-end model are very obvious. Especially when solving the long tail condition, the end-to-end model can give play to the incomparable advantages of the traditional autonomous driving technology model. At present, some new car companies, such as Huawei, Tucki, Weilai and Ideality, have started to introduce the end-to-end model in the domestic market.

Aside from Huawei, which has abundant capital, it is a big challenge for new car companies with limited capital accumulation to balance the input and output returns of end-to-end technology. Not to mention, it is not an easy task to buy large computing chips in China at present.

With the high probability of the end of the year, Tesla FSD V12 will enter the domestic market. What changes will take place in the domestic market structure of autonomous driving technology at that time, which deserves people’s attention.