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The full text is 3,500 words in total and lasts about 5 minutes.

Source of this article: Liu Shengjun’s overall situation (produced by Liu Shengjun Micro Finance)

Text | Liu Shengjun

• Others fear that I am greedy, others are greedy and I am afraid. -Buffett
• If even Country Garden falls, it will be the last straw to crush the camel.
• Extremes must be reversed. "Model student" Country Garden crisis, on the contrary, indicates that the real estate industry is about to usher in a turning point.
• Evergrande’s problem is Evergrande’s problem; The problem of Country Garden is an industry problem. Different roads lead to different returns.

After Evergrande, Country Garden, the largest real estate company in China in terms of sales area, actually came to the brink of debt default in the first half of this year. It was predicted that the loss in the first half of this year exceeded 45 billion yuan, and its 11 domestic corporate bonds stopped trading, and its share price evaporated by nearly 50% in a week.

In fact, this is no exception. Like Country Garden, head housing enterprises such as Sunac and Greenland have a hard time. Which one is not trembling and treading on thin ice? Whoever falls first is likely.

On August 8th, Chen Qizong, a Hong Kong real estate tycoon, said with emotion, "Many of my old real estate friends, who have met here once a year for many years, are hard to meet now. A friend came to my place for dinner more than a year ago. He told me, can I make it this time? I dare not say. At last, when we said goodbye, my heart was sour. Of course, he is not bad now, but he was rescued. Another friend was more sure, and as a result, his end was not so good. "

According to statistics, Evergrande Group has a debt of 2.58 trillion yuan, Country Garden 1.7 trillion yuan, green land 1.2 trillion yuan and Sunac 1 trillion yuan. The liabilities of these four housing enterprises add up to nearly 6.5 trillion, which is equivalent to 5.4% of China’s GDP of 121 trillion in 2022!

Indeed, the head housing enterprises are too big and become unregulated "financial behemoths". Evergrande’s debt is equivalent to the asset size of the 19th largest bank in China. Anyone who studies finance knows the problem of "too big to fail". In 2008, the Federal Reserve blew up Lehman Brothers, a small bank, with a try attitude. Unexpectedly, the people who bombed the world went belly-up.

As a result, the "three red lines" were born. Everyone, including Country Garden, was dumbfounded by the fiercest regulation of China real estate in history.

Objectively speaking, it is necessary to prevent financial risks by limiting the "barbaric expansion" of head housing enterprises. However, in the implementation of the "three red lines", there has been a phenomenon of simplification, across the board, short-term long-term goals and protracted battles, which has led to the suspension of the whole real estate industry so far (what is the medium-and long-term solution to real estate? )。

The current situation of real estate is already very dangerous. All housing enterprises are unsafe. This further leads to the wait-and-see attitude of buyers. After all, no one wants to get into the trouble of "uncompleted residential flats". As a result, "negative feedback" began, and "guaranteeing the delivery of the building" did not help.

In July, house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide fell, and the number of cities reached the highest range in history: house prices in 49 cities fell. In July, the sales area of commercial housing dropped by 46.1% from the previous month. From January to July, investment in real estate development decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, which seriously dragged down economic growth.

We must stabilize the property and can’t hesitate any longer. There is no need to worry about letting go of the purchase restriction and "soaring house prices". At this time, the environment has changed, expectations have changed, and the money bag has shrunk. What we really want to prevent now is not the sharp rise in housing prices, but the unbearable weight of the real estate systemic crisis.

Although Country Garden is dangerous, it is not Evergrande after all.

1. Evergrande is a "big" word. It relies on gambling and gambling blindly and expands savagely, and has no real core competitiveness. Evergrande blindly diversified and made a strategic taboo. We can get a glimpse from Evergrande Football, Evergrande Super Headquarters (unfinished) and Evergrande Automobile. Country Garden, which rose from "Give you a five-star home" in 1995, has considerable strength in product building, property service and refined management. Country Garden was once praised as a "model student" by the industry, but it didn’t get a hollow reputation. In 2022, Country Garden delivered 700,000 houses, and Vivanco Evergrande added up more.

2, Xu Jiayin blindly high-profile, Yang Guoqiang is very low-key and pragmatic. Xu Jiayin is one or two of the highest-profile entrepreneurs in China, and he is keen on publicity. Evergrande has not only a football team, but also a national song and dance troupe. Ma Weidou once recalled the first meeting with Xu Jiayin: Xu Jiayin was wearing a coat and walking with the wind. "Teacher Ma is here!" Xu Jiayin shoulders a shake, coat slipped from the shoulder with the action, behind the bodyguard "pa" stretched out his hand and caught. After taking a seat, Xu stretched out his index finger and middle finger, and the bodyguard behind him took out a cigar with a bang. Xu Jiayin "where people go, the elevator is controlled", "except the secretary’s bodyguard and personal butler, other people, especially men, are not allowed to approach" and "generally bring your own cigars, and you need to be equipped with cigar holders and cigar scissors." Diet "only eat imported fruits, including Japanese greenhouse honeydew melon, Japanese fragrant Yin Qing Ti, Qingwang watermelon, especially sweet winter jujube and mango." When KTV sings, "drink royal salute and soda water". When Evergrande hired Ren Zeping with a high salary, it was essentially a hype (Liu Shengjun fired in the early morning! Ren Zeping was "torn by hand": bragging, inciting and greedy for heaven! I hope you can get out of the swamp of desire as soon as possible! ）。

In contrast, Yang Guoqiang, a farmer, is one of the lowest-key businessmen, and even when he reached the top of China’s richest man in 2007, he did not receive any media interviews. It is said that Yang Guoqiang reads 100,000 words every day. Yang Guoqiang, who is less than 70 years old this year, transferred his shares to his daughter Yang Huiyan several years ago. The author visited Country Garden headquarters a few years ago, and Yang Guoqiang personally toasted every guest at the table, which was very approachable.

3. It is difficult to engage in real estate without involving political and business relations, which is an extremely dangerous zone. A staff member of Guangdong judicial system told China Economic Weekly that in Guangdong officialdom, most of Wan Qingliang’s friends who were real estate developers were famous. Wan Qingliang, a "fan", is also a frequent visitor to Evergrande. Evergrande invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the Danzhou "Haihua Island" project, which was finally stopped by the environmental protection department. In September 2019, Zhang Qi, former member of the Standing Committee of Hainan Provincial Party Committee and former secretary of Haikou Municipal Committee, was dismissed. Zhang Qi used his position as secretary of Danzhou Municipal Party Committee to promote the Haihua Island project in violation of regulations, involving a total area of 783 hectares of reclamation. As a result, a large area of coral reefs and white butterflies were permanently destroyed. Zhang Qi, who "swelled his purse and destroyed the ecology", was sentenced to no life. Like Wanda Group, some people in Country Garden will inevitably take bribes, but with Yang Guoqiang’s personality, he must be very cautious in political and business relations.

The only free private high school in China, Guohua Memorial Middle School.

Yang Guoqiang, a peasant.

Of course, it is undeniable that Country Garden also made mistakes:

First, enter the third-and fourth-tier cities in a big way. In 2015, the shantytown renovation was carried out with monetary resettlement. For a time, hot money was rolling in the third-and fourth-tier cities, and Country Garden took the lead in blowing the horn of entering the third-and fourth-tier cities. Up to now, 80% of the land is still in the third-and fourth-tier cities. Now it seems that this is a major misjudgment. The purchasing power of third-and fourth-tier cities is insufficient, and it is easy to fall into a liquidity dilemma overnight.

Second, the Malaysian forest city project has been defeated. The "Forest City" project started in 2015 and plans to invest more than 100 billion US dollars. This "green and intelligent future city" in southern Malaysia, close to Singapore, has now become a "ghost town". However, the original idea is not unreasonable: to seize the psychology of high-net-worth people to buy a house overseas and settle down, the house price is equivalent to a quarter of Singapore’s. It’s just that people are not as good as heaven, and they have encountered black swan events such as exchange rate turmoil, difficulties in foreign exchange outflow, and sudden changes in Malaysia’s political situation, which led to the project being called to a halt, and they have no choice but to stop eating in the storm that has never changed in a hundred years.

No one can always win a business, such as a war. The key is to learn from failure.

Country Garden’s asset-liability ratio was 82.3%, while Evergrande once reached 132.6%, and the latter was insolvent. In 2021, Country Garden only failed to meet the standard of "excluding the asset-liability ratio of advance receipts not exceeding 70%". By 2022, Country Garden achieved "three red lines" without stepping on it. Evergrande stepped on all three red lines. Country Garden still has a chance to reorganize and survive.

Country Garden can’t fail for a simple reason: at present, regardless of potential buyers or upstream and downstream housing enterprises, the nerves are already quite fragile, and Country Garden is the industry benchmark. In addition, the financial giant "Zhongzhi Group" is also in trouble with Country Garden. Zhongrong Trust, a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Group, has fallen into a storm of suspension. Among the huge financial assets of Zhongrong Trust, real estate accounts for 11%. Once there are problems in Country Garden and Zhongzhi, the potential chain reaction cannot but be frightening.

If even Country Garden falls, it will be the last straw to crush the camel. Yang Guoqiang once encouraged his manager with such a request: Even if Country Garden falls, it will be the last real estate enterprise in China.

Practice has proved that the simple idea of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" is not feasible. "Baojiaolou" seems to help, but in fact it often aggravates the difficulty of capital turnover of housing enterprises. As long as the housing enterprises do not return to normal state, the normal operation of the industry will be difficult to maintain. At this time, it is unrealistic to expect people to buy houses (the sudden braking of real estate is unbearable: it is suggested to move from "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" to "guaranteeing the main body"). "Protecting the main body of the market" should start from Country Garden.

Conclusion: Evergrande’s problem is Evergrande’s problem; The problem of Country Garden is an industry problem. Different roads lead to different returns.

Of course, Country Garden can’t wait for "Prince Charming" or "pie in the sky". Mo Bin, president of Country Garden, said in the announcement that Country Garden had encountered the biggest difficulty since its establishment. Wang Shi, an old friend of Yang Guoqiang, bluntly said, "At present, real estate enterprises are facing challenges one after another, especially large real estate companies are facing transformation. Lao Yang and I respect and admire each other. It is inevitable that there will be a shortage of funds during the transformation of Country Garden, but Mr. Xiang Yang Guoqiang will actively cope with the difficulties. ".

Country Garden faces a better environment than Evergrande. Evergrande is an early bird in the rectification of "three red lines". Now, the policy orientation has quietly changed. On July 24, 2023, the Politburo meeting proposed that "it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas,Adapt to the new situation that the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, and timely adjust and optimize real estate policies.Because the city makes good use of the policy toolbox to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "

On August 15th, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, responded to the Country Garden incident, saying, "At present, the real estate market is generally in the adjustment stage, and some housing enterprises have encountered certain difficulties, especially the debt risks of some leading housing enterprises have been exposed, which has affected market expectations. But we should see that these problems are phased,With the market adjustment mechanism gradually playing a role and the real estate market policy adjustment and optimization, the risks of housing enterprises are expected to be gradually resolved.. "

But in any case, the "big era" of real estate "big is good" has ended. Country Garden, which has been on the list of the world’s top 500 for seven consecutive years, please forget the charm of "the world’s top 500" from now on.

The author sends a message to Mr. Yang Guoqiang: Hold your ground steady and break your arm to survive. Learn from a painful experience, and from today on, get rid of the demons that "big is good". Face the new stage and new pattern of real estate, explore new models, and develop wholeheartedly with high quality, so as to "forget the pain without healing the scar" in the future (China real estate: new stage, new pattern, new model).

The historical picture that has not changed greatly in a hundred years is slowly opening.

Join the "study tour of entrepreneurs in secret places",

Join hands to cross the fog of world politics and economy,

Live up to Damei China,

Be a wise man in uncertain times.

Join the secret pursuit, pursue all the way, great beauty and true knowledge.

Liu Shengjun

Member of Shanghai Economic Committee of Zhi Gong Dang

An economist who insists on telling the truth

Political economy+great historical view

Participated in the Prime Minister’s Economic Symposium in 2014.

Chief economist of Tianjushi Group

Founder of Liu Shengjun Micro Finance

Chief Expert of Shandong Human Resources Development Promotion Association

Author of The Next Decade

Shandong Heze Dingtaoren

Zheng Bei, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that measures will be taken to support the development of private enterprises, solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing, speed up the progress of clearing debts, and promote local governments and state-owned enterprises to implement their responsibilities. The National Development and Reform Commission will also protect the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises in accordance with the law, promote the legislative process of the private economy promotion law, improve the benchmark of administrative discretion and prevent illegal law enforcement. In addition, the negative list of market access will be revised to support private enterprises to participate in the "two new" projects, optimize the development environment and stimulate market vitality.

　　On the 12th, the Ministry of Culture announced the 25th list of illegal Internet cultural activities, and nearly 17,000 network anchors were investigated. The number of illegal network anchors is so huge that it once again reflects the problems in the field of webcasting. From stars to ordinary people, more and more people join the ranks of network anchors. In order to attract more viewers, some network anchors even have no bottom line hype and show off pornography.

　　According to a survey, over 80% of netizens support relevant state departments to guide and manage network anchors. Among them, 48.08% of the respondents think that the live broadcast of eating and sleeping by network anchors is "vulgar and unintelligible". Some public opinion analysts pointed out that network anchors may usher in a big reshuffle in the second half of this year.

　　Some parents worry that their children will be affected.

　　In January of this year, a pair of male and female anchors on the betta platform conducted pornographic live broadcasts, so the vulgarization of network anchors became the focus of public opinion. Weibo, a police officer including Jiangsu Cyber Police, criticized this phenomenon by name and pointed out that two anchors had been suspected of breaking the law.

　　The survival of network anchors depends on the audience’s "reward" in the live broadcast. In order to attract more viewers, network anchors often go sideways, or speculate through verbal and physical cues, or live broadcast of boring behaviors such as eating and sleeping. This kind of soft pornography has brought high popularity and rich income, and network anchors have become more and more "willful".

　　But public opinion has been quite worried about this. By searching for "webcast" through Baidu Index, in terms of crowd division, 12% of followers are teenagers under the age of 19. A parent in Guangzhou once told reporters: "Now students have a mobile phone, and they are really worried that their children will see the bad content of the anchor and have an impact on him."

　　Some time ago, the "Men’s Subway Live Event" in Guangzhou was also criticized by public opinion, not only because the behavior of two men eating and drinking in the subway seriously disturbed public order, but also because their vulgar and "out of place" performance openly publicized a bad social habit. The voice of public opinion for rectifying the webcast platform is also getting higher and higher.

　　The anchor is basically recognized but needs supervision.

　　A few days ago, Questionnaires.com launched a survey about network anchors. The survey results show that over 70% of the respondents have some knowledge of the profession of network anchor, which shows that webcasting has become a phenomenon and is known to most people.

　　However, when asked, "What do you think of the overnight fame of network anchors?", 31.73% of the respondents thought it was a reflection of social impetuous psychology. Some media have reported that the high income of webcasting can reach hundreds of thousands of yuan a month, and the anchor of game commentary can even get an annual salary of 10 million yuan. Under the temptation of interests, many network anchors flock to it.

　　When asked, "What do you think of the influence of network anchor on the public and society?", half of the respondents still recognized the joy brought by anchor. Among them, 14.42% of the respondents think that webcasting broadens their horizons, and even 7.69% of the respondents think that webcasting has established people’s confidence and encouraged the diversified development of humanity and culture. It can be seen that network anchors are basically recognized, but they need supervision.

　　In "Do you think it is necessary for relevant state departments to guide and manage the webcast industry?" In one question, a total of 82.69% of the respondents chose necessary. In addition, 65.38% of the respondents said that network anchors should spread positive energy.

　　The network anchor had high hopes, and his versatility and good sense of camera are all pushing the development of the emerging industry of webcasting. Network anchors have gradually grown into an industry group, and "prohibition" is obviously not the best way.

　　It is true that the cultural department cannot always audit and supervise every network anchor, but it can combine with other relevant departments to introduce corresponding punishment measures to shock the warning. At the same time, the live broadcast platform should fulfill its main responsibility, with sufficient content audit inspectors and strict technical monitoring measures, so as to find, track and identify in time and shut down illegal performances in time. As an anchor, you are also responsible for the live content. In this regard, some experts suggest that real-name registration system measures such as identity authentication should be implemented for network anchors, so that the source can be traced and the responsibility can be investigated.

　　Nanfang Daily reporter Deng Qiang

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　　If you don’t like to travel far, you like to feel lucky in your own world. The M5 Smart Driving Edition can help you explore your city with the lowest cost. The pure battery life of the M5 Smart Driving Edition reaches 255km. Even in Beijing, it is more than enough to commute for one week by going back and forth for 30km every day. More importantly, the charging efficiency is high, and it can be charged from 20% to 80% in half an hour. Occasionally, it is absolutely appropriate to go camping for a short distance on weekends and live on pure electricity.

　　Full power, popular electric switch

　　Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, Wujie M5 series can not only reduce the travel cost for users, but also provide double endurance, and its performance is unambiguous. Take the M5 standard four-wheel drive model as an example. The acceleration time of this car is only 4.4 seconds, which is better than many luxury brand electric SUVs on the market. The biggest benefit of such excellent data performance is super explosive power, which allows drivers to experience the passion of driving a sports car.

　　Super explosive power is also related to the dynamic performance of the vehicle itself. The maximum power and peak torque of the M5 standard four-wheel drive model can reach 365kW and 675N·m respectively. In daily life, when the pressure is great, drive this car to release it, feel the speed and passion, relieve the pressure, forget the troubles and regain the passion.

　　The strong performance of the M5 series in the world benefits from the blessing of the three-in-one electric drive system of HUAWEI DriveONE. This system adopts the industry’s first precision oil cooling technology, which has a better cooling effect on key components under the same power and torque. The direct benefit is that it can fundamentally improve the power and quietness of the car. If you drive fast at high speed, or speed up overtaking, the power is on call.

　　In addition, Wujie M5 version also has HUAWEI DATS dynamic adaptive torque system, which can reduce the pre-driving impulse by 31%, the sloshing convergence time by 46% and the system response time delay to 4 ms.. When driving on potholes or bumpy roads with speed bumps, not only can the car body shake slightly, but it can also stabilize quickly. If the self-driving trip encounters bumpy roads such as mountain roads and gravel roads, it can also pass comfortably, alleviating the discomfort caused by bumps in the car. If you are driving on a road with many curves, this system can help the vehicle to improve the lateral force through adaptive torque adjustment, and the risk of tail flick will be greatly reduced when driving, which is stable and safe.

　　The M5 series has brought excellent performance to users in all directions. It can make you say goodbye to all kinds of troubles and enjoy a worry-free driving journey in terms of endurance, power and driving control. If you are eager to travel without worry and enjoy driving, you may wish to try the M5 series. I believe it will bring you a different surprise experience. In addition to the surprise experience brought by the product itself to users, the recent delivery speed is also very surprising. You can pick up the car within two weeks after making a decision. You may wish to experience it in the offline test drive!

　　BEIJING, April 18 (Reporter Wu Tao) Recently, it was reported that China Unicom would close its 2G network. China Unicom issued an announcement in response, and is promoting the frequency reduction of 2G networks in an orderly manner. What is frequency reduction in 2G networks? Will it affect consumers and why?

　　Multi-operators start network frequency reduction

　　For the frequency reduction of 2G networks, the reporter consulted the three major operators respectively. China Unicom said,The frequency reduction of 2G network can’t be called closing 2G network, because users are still on 2G network, but there is a process of frequency reduction and slimming step by step..

　　Some insiders who don’t want to be named said that the gradual frequency reduction of 2G is actually the gradual withdrawal of 2G from the network, and the complete disappearance of 2G base stations means that 2G is completely withdrawn from the network; At present, the three major operators are still in a state where 2G, 3G and 4G networks coexist.

　　According to an insider of China Mobile,China Mobile has no plans to quit the network for 2G at present.. As of press time, China Telecom has no reply.

　　However, Fu Liang, an independent telecom analyst, revealed in an interview with Zhongxin.com that in fact, all three major operators are doing network frequency reduction work, and China Unicom is still the latest; Among them, China Mobile is doing 3G network frequency reduction.

　　Will consumers be affected?

　　According to the data released by China Unicom, by the end of February, there were 289 million users in China Unicom, including 187 million 4G users. It is reported that China Unicom’s 2G users account for about 2% of its total users, which means that China Unicom has more than 500 million 2G users.

　　Will these users be affected by the frequency reduction of 2G networks? China Unicom said that it willTake various preferential measures, such as replacing mobile phone cards for free, giving away experience traffic, and offering preferential purchase, to assist existing 2G customers to upgrade to 4G networks.In this process, the existing 2G customer service will not be affected.

　　Xiang Ligang, an expert in communication industry, believes that the frequency reduction of the 2G network of China Unicom is not affected by the vast majority of consumers.

　　Fu Liang believes that it is impossible for 2G users to have no impact at all. It can only be said that it is less affected. After frequency reduction, 2G network coverage may be insufficient in some places, "butFrequency reduction does not mean that the 2G network cannot be used, because there are still 2G base stations.. "

　　The reporter noted that, despite the current 4G era, 2G or 3G networks still play a role. Some users said in an interview with Zhongxin.com, "I still feel that the existence of 2G networks is better becauseIn some places, there is no 4G network coverage. When passing through these places, the mobile phone will automatically switch to 3G or 2G networks, and there is still a process of connecting when using it, or it will be disconnected."

　　Data Map: There are more and more 4G users. The picture shows Shenyang citizens using the 4G network to surf the Internet for free on the bus. China News Agency issued by Haiyang Photo

　　Why do you want network frequency reduction?

　　Since there are still users, why do you want to reduce the frequency of 2G networks?

　　Fu Liang said that it turned out that2G network occupies some frequency bands, and some frequency bands are scarce, which can be said to be valuable resources. After reuse, it can be used in 4G network construction., which is conducive to improving network quality and network wide-area coverage.

　　China Unicom also indicated that the bandwidth resources will be used for higher 4G networks and deployment.

　　"In addition, with the decrease of 2G and 3G users, its network capacity is more and more surplus, and its base station and other facilities are increasingly uneconomical to invest in operation and maintenance, which is another reason." Fu Liang said.

　　This is true. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of February, the number of mobile phone users of the three major operators reached 1.44 billion, of which the total number of 4G users reached 1.03 billion, and 4G users accounted for 71.6% of mobile phone users.

　　However, the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also showed that as of the end of February,The total number of mobile broadband users (namely 3G and 4G users) reached 1.17 billion. This means that there are still 270 million 2G users, which is still a huge number..

　　In view of this, Fu Liang believes that it is impossible for the three major operators to shut down the 2G network at once. Network frequency reduction is a gradual process, and 2G users do not have to worry too much.

　　"It should also be pointed out that if the equipment used by 2G users supports WCDMA, even if China Unicom shuts down the 2G network, it will still have no impact on them." Fu Liang said. (End)