Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 11th Title: Domestic prices keep running smoothly-a perspective of CPI and PPI data in the first quarter
Xinhua News Agency reporter Wei Yukun and Shui Jinchen
Since the beginning of this year, China’s prices have maintained a stable operation. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 11th. In the first quarter, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% on average compared with the same period of last year, and the national industrial producer ex-factory price index (PPI) dropped by 1.6% compared with the same period of last year, which continued to be an important "stabilizer" for global prices.
CPI runs in a reasonable range
Stabilizing prices is an important task to do a good job in this year’s economic work. This year’s government work report will set the annual increase in consumer prices at around 3%.
The latest data shows that in the first quarter, CPI continued to operate in a reasonable range, and the monthly increase was lower than the expected target of around 3%.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in January, due to factors such as the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month; In February, affected by factors such as falling consumer demand after the holiday and sufficient market supply, the year-on-year increase of CPI dropped by 1.1 percentage points compared with the previous month; In March, production and life continued to recover, and the consumer market was fully supplied. CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from last month.
In China’s CPI "basket" goods, food accounts for a relatively high proportion. Since the beginning of this year, the increase in food prices has continued to fall, from 6.2% in January to 2.4% in March.
From the ring comparison, the price of food changed from 2.8% in January to 1.4% in March. Dong Lijuan analyzed that in March, due to the abundant stock and the decline in consumer demand, pork prices decreased by 4.2% month-on-month; The price of fresh vegetables decreased by 7.2% month-on-month, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than that of last month.
"Vegetable production is greatly affected by meteorological conditions. Adequate sunshine and rising temperature in March are conducive to improving the growth rate of vegetables, resulting in an increase in the output of some vegetables and a downward price. In addition, due to the’ cold spring’ weather in the producing areas, the listing period of vegetables has been postponed, and the prices of lettuce, cauliflower and other varieties have fluctuated frequently. " Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said.
The increase in non-food prices has declined. In March, non-food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In non-food, service prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month; The price of industrial consumer goods changed from 0.5% last month to 0.8%.
"Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase of China’s core CPI has been fluctuating in the range of around 1%, which shows that the consumer prices of industrial consumer goods and services in China have remained stable." Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said.
PPI growth continued to fall.
Affected by factors such as the high comparative base in the same period of last year, the overall price of industrial products in China continued to decline. In the first quarter, PPI decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, including a decrease of 2.5% in March, which was 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the previous month.
From the ring comparison, in January, due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and the downward trend of domestic coal prices, the PPI decreased by 0.4% from the previous month. In February, the production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI turned flat. In March, due to the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy and the price trend of some commodities in the international market, the PPI remained flat.
Dong Lijuan analyzed that in March, domestic production and market demand continued to improve, key projects were accelerated, and the prices of steel, cement and other industries increased from the previous month. Among them, the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing all increased by 1.3% from the previous month. International input factors have driven down the prices of domestic oil and non-ferrous metals-related industries, among which the prices of oil and natural gas mining industry decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 0.4%. Affected by seasonal factors such as rising temperature, the demand for coal has decreased, and the price of coal mining and washing industry has dropped by 1.2%.
"The continuous decline in PPI growth will help improve the profit structure of upstream and downstream industries, ease the cost pressure of manufacturing enterprises in the middle and lower reaches, and stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects." Wang Likun said.
There is a solid foundation for keeping prices running smoothly.
Prices are related to economic operation and affect people’s lives. Experts said that with the gradual improvement of domestic demand, the supporting role for related prices will be enhanced, and the influence of international input factors still exists, and there is some pressure to stabilize prices. However, judging from the trend of the whole year, it still has a solid foundation to maintain the stable operation of prices.
Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that China’s grain production has maintained growth, and the grain output has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion Jin for eight consecutive years, and the inventory is relatively abundant; Pork production capacity is at a reasonable level and does not have the conditions for a sharp increase; Energy prices are stable. Last year, China effectively released advanced coal production capacity, and the energy self-sufficiency rate was above 80%. In recent years, the production of oil and natural gas has increased significantly, which is conducive to stabilizing energy prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission has made it clear that we should make overall plans to increase employment and income, and strengthen the supply and price stability of key commodities; The National Energy Administration requires that we do our best to ensure the supply and price stability of natural gas this year to ensure the demand for gas for people’s livelihood; Zunyi, Guizhou, established a unified "white list" system to guarantee supply, strengthened the mechanism of joint guarantee and supply, and ensured a strong and orderly supply of "rice bags" … Recently, all relevant departments and localities have made overall plans to ensure supply and stabilize prices.
Key enterprises have increased efforts to ensure supply and price stability, and have sufficient stocks. For example, Beijing Xinfadi Market will expand the "through train" to cover cities and build a green channel for featured agricultural products to enter Beijing; Meituan buys vegetables on the early-adopter channel of spring vegetables. Toona sinensis, shepherd’s purse, spring bamboo shoots and other fresh spring vegetables are well supplied. Cheap food markets and super discount channels are updated every day, and the prices remain generally stable.
"Looking forward to the whole year, China’s industrial and agricultural products and services are well supplied, production and marketing are smoothly connected, the market order is good, and the overall economic recovery trend will gradually appear in prices. It is expected that the overall price level will generally operate in a reasonable range." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said.