Every edited leaf peak
Live theme: countdown to Xiaomi automobile conference, and the automobile industry chain will welcome catalysis again.
Live guest: Ma Yiwen, Fund Manager of Guotai Quantitative Investment Department
Live broadcast time: March 26, 2024
abstract:
Recently, there has been some rebound in the automobile sector. After the rapid market crash in January and February this year, the recent bottom rebound of the automobile ETF (516110) has also reached more than 20%. This also reflects that investors have certain expectations for the recovery of the automobile market. In addition, under the background of the upcoming release of Xiaomi Automobile, the relevant industrial chains, including suppliers of thermal management, air suspension, smart cockpit, interior and exterior accessories, etc., have also been catalyzed to some extent.
In the long run, we feel that we need to pay more attention to two trends: one is the trend of new energy for automobiles, and the other is the trend of intelligent automobiles. In the past two years, the new energy vehicle sector has undergone substantial adjustment, and the main factor is the deterioration of the supply and demand pattern of the industrial chain. However, we have seen that the spot price of lithium carbonate has rebounded from the previous low of 96,000 yuan, and recently reached the level of about 110,000 yuan, which also reflects the improvement of the supply and demand pattern.
From the perspective of automobile sales, the automobile retail market in March was almost at the level of 1.65 million vehicles, up 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate also reflected some signs of repair. In addition, it is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 750,000 in March, up by 37.1% year-on-year and 93% quarter-on-quarter, with a penetration rate of 45%. On the one hand, it reflects that automobile sales have recovered after the off-season during the previous Spring Festival, and the more important reason is that new models were launched intensively in March, including the official delivery of new models and the climbing of production capacity.
In addition, there is still a price war in the current market, which does restrain the sales of automobiles in the short term. However, after the price war of automobiles stabilizes and the price-performance ratio of automobiles is higher, the sales of automobiles will still pick up obviously.
This year, the automobile industry is also facing a major change, and the generative AI is expected to accelerate the upgrade of autonomous driving technology. First of all, the cognitive reasoning ability of generative AI or large model can help the automatic driving algorithm to process and train data sets efficiently, so that the system has the ability of independent data mining and processing, which can improve the efficiency of data processing and reduce the cost. Second, the large model technology can accelerate and help the upgrade and iteration of the autonomous driving algorithm. The third is the simulation system. The large model is expected to build simulation test scenarios related to real driving scenarios, so that the models and technologies of intelligent driving can be trained in these simulation scenarios.
In the long run, the new energy and intelligence of automobiles are still a relatively clear trend. We think we can still focus on the automobile production chain, including some investment opportunities like new energy vehicles and smart cars. From the perspective of investment targets, we can pay attention to such things as automobile ETF(516110), new energy vehicle ETF(159806) and smart vehicle ETF(159889).
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