2022 is a year of deep adjustment in the real estate market. In the context of the impact of the epidemic and the expected decline in residents’ income, some housing demand was delayed; At the same time, the credit crisis of housing enterprises broke out frequently, the wait-and-see mood of buyers became stronger, and the performance of sales side was weak. However, from the beginning of 2022, favorable policies to support real estate in various places were introduced in turn, and gradual easing continued to be staged. At the central level, it reaffirmed the status of "real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy" and issued a number of policy tools to support the smooth operation of the real estate market.
The Paper reviewed the property market in 2022 by taking stock of the top ten keywords of the real estate industry in the past year.
Reduce down payment
In 2022, credit policies will be optimized in many places, and the purchase cost and purchase threshold of buyers will be further reduced.
According to the incomplete statistics of The Paper, more than 100 cities have reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund or commercial personal housing loans to 20% this year, including Chengdu, Sichuan, Shijiazhuang, Shaanxi, Xi ‘an, Taiyuan, Jilin, Changchun, Fuzhou, Fujian, Nanchang, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guiyang, Guizhou, Lanzhou, Gansu, Yinchuan, Ningxia, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Wuhan, Hubei and other second-tier cities.
From the perspective of down payment ratio, institutional statistics show that since 2022, the down payment ratio of the first suite in the unrestricted area has generally dropped to 20%, and the second set has dropped to 30%; The down payment ratio of the first suite in the restricted purchase area is mostly 30%.
On January 5, 2023, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, mentioned in an exclusive interview with CCTV reporters at the General Station that the buyers of the first house should be strongly supported. The down payment ratio and the first set of interest rates should be lowered. For the purchase of a second house, we should give reasonable support. Trade-in the old for the new, trade-in the small for the big, and give policy support to families with many children.
The industry believes that it is expected that in 2023, under the tone of "housing and not speculating", both the supply and demand sides will continue to optimize their policies, and the policy intensity is expected to be further strengthened. The core first-and second-tier cities, especially the core second-tier cities, have greater room for policy optimization. The expectation of policy optimization in first-tier cities is also increasing, and there is room for reducing mortgage interest rate, down payment ratio and taxes.
Lower interest rate
In 2022, the central bank cut interest rates three times, and the LPR over five years was lowered by a total of 35 basis points, which was the strongest year to cut interest rates after the mortgage interest rate changed anchor LPR in 2019.
At the same time, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission repeatedly lowered the lower limit of mortgage interest rate. In 2022, in May, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission made it clear that the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of commercial personal housing loans was adjusted to not less than the quoted interest rate of the corresponding term loan market minus 20 basis points; At the end of September, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission successively released heavy benefits, and gradually relaxed the lower limit of the interest rate of the first commercial personal housing loan for some cities.
According to the monitoring data of the Central Finger Research Institute, as of December 30 last year, nearly 30 cities have reduced the interest rate of the first home loan to below 4%, including Yangjiang, Qingyuan, Yunfu, Zhanjiang, Jining, Wuhan, Guiyang, Jiangmen, Yichang, Xiangyang, Tianjin, Baotou, Fuyang, Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Kunming, Dalian, Dali, Luzhou, Anqing, Enshi, Wenzhou and Wenzhou.
The loan interest rates in some cities have fallen to historical lows. Shijiazhuang and Wenzhou in second-tier cities currently have the lowest interest rates of the first set of commercial loans of 3.8%, while Qingyuan and Zhuzhou in third-and fourth-tier cities have the lowest interest rates of 3.7%.
At the same time, the central bank lowered the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan by 15 basis points after seven years. Since October 1, 2022, the interest rate of the first home provident fund loan for more than five years has dropped to 3.1%.
On January 5, 2023, the People’s Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice to establish the first dynamic adjustment mechanism of housing loan interest rate policy. In cities where the sales price of newly-built commercial housing has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year for three consecutive months, the lower limit of the local first home loan interest rate policy can be maintained, lowered or cancelled in stages.
"four limits" are loosened
The optimization policy of loosening the "four limits" of purchase restriction, loan restriction, price restriction and sales restriction has become the first choice for the regulation of the property market in various places.
According to the statistics of the Central Finger Research Institute, as of December 26th, 2022, more than 330 provinces, cities and counties in China have issued more than 1,000 housing market easing policies, which involve optimizing purchase restriction (111 in 48 cities), optimizing loan restriction (240 in 173 cities), optimizing sales restriction (41 in 33 cities) and adjusting price restriction (34 in 29 cities).
In March 2022, Zhengzhou started the first shot of adjusting the policy of restricting purchases and loans. Zhengzhou issued the "Notice on Promoting the Benign Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry", which clearly relaxed the purchase restriction and cancelled the "recognition of housing and loan". Subsequently, many cities across the country successively introduced the "four limits" to loosen the property market policy.
By the third quarter of 2022, many second-tier hotspot cities will follow up and optimize the purchase restriction policy. According to the statistics of The Paper, the optimization policies of core second-tier cities including Qingdao, Jinan, Suzhou, Tianjin, Chengdu, Xi ‘an, Nanjing, Xiamen, Foshan, Dongguan and Wuhan have been introduced one after another.
Buy a house by group purchase
"Buying a house by group purchase" has also become an important content in the toolbox of local property market regulation policies in 2022, and many cities have issued documents to encourage group purchase of commercial housing.
According to incomplete statistics of The Paper, in the second half of 2022 alone, There are at least Taiyuan in Shanxi, Zhongshan in Guangdong, Shenyang in Liaoning, Tonglu in Zhejiang, Tongling in Anhui, Pu ‘er in Yunnan, Bazhong in Sichuan, Huanggang in Hubei, Changchun in Jilin, Suining in Sichuan, Lianyungang in Jiangsu, Haining in Zhejiang, Macheng in Hubei, Meishan in Sichuan, Hangzhou in Zhejiang, Baise in Guangxi, Zhuji in Zhejiang, Xinghua in Jiangsu, Qingyang in Gansu, Wuzhou in Guangxi, Shaoxing in Zhejiang, Nanning in Guangxi, Zhengzhou in Henan, Laian in Anhui, and Nanning in Hubei. Zunyi, Guizhou, Yiwu, Zhejiang, Quzhou, Hubei, Enshi, Qingdao, Guangxi, Heshan, Linyi, Shandong and other places issued policies or activities related to "buying houses and buying groups".
Among the cities that issue "buying houses by group purchase", some cities explicitly encourage government agencies, state-owned enterprises and institutions and other groups to buy houses. At the same time, encouraging real estate enterprises to carry out group purchase concessions is also a major feature of local policies.
ensure timely deliveries of presold homes
In June, 2022, driven by increasing policy support and active marketing of real estate enterprises, the market showed signs of stabilization. However, in July, the phenomenon of collective "off supply" of buyers caused by the suspension of auction houses appeared in many places, and market confidence was frustrated again, and sales were sluggish.
At the end of July, 2022, "Guaranteeing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people’s livelihood" was first written into the Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party document. No matter the central level, local governments or real estate enterprises, they are actively making efforts to carry out the work related to "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings". According to the monitoring of the Central Finger, over 70 provinces and cities, in combination with local actual conditions, have substantially promoted the implementation of the "Guaranteed Building" initiative.
In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China and other relevant departments, issued special measures to support cities in need to promote the construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold and are difficult to deliver. At the end of August, media reports showed that the national relief fund earmarked for "Baojiaolou" was launched. The initial scale of this special loan reached 200 billion yuan, and the central bank instructed China Development Bank and China Agricultural Development Bank to arrange it in the existing loan quota.
In October last year, the central bank explicitly promoted the use of special loans for "Baojiaolou".
In November last year, the Central Bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Support for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, which supported the China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank to issue the special loan of "Guaranteed Property" to the borrowers who have been reviewed and filed in compliance with the law, in an efficient and orderly manner, with closed operation and special funds earmarked to support the accelerated construction and delivery of the sold overdue residential projects.
At the same time, Pan Gongsheng, member of the Party Committee and Vice President of the People’s Bank of China, introduced at the national symposium on credit work of commercial banks, "The ‘ Baojiaolou ’ On the basis of special loans, the People’s Bank of China will launch 200 billion yuan ‘ Baojiaolou ’ The loan support plan provides commercial banks with zero-cost funds to encourage their support ‘ Baojiaolou ’ Work. "
In December last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed "to ensure the stable development of the real estate market" and "to do a solid job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people’s livelihood and stability".
Liquidation order
From the perspective of housing enterprises, affected by the debt default, in 2022, a number of housing enterprises issued announcements of receiving creditors’ liquidation petitions.
According to incomplete statistics of The Paper, in 2022, creditors filed liquidation petitions including Sunshine City, Fantasia Holdings, Fusheng International, China Evergrande, Dafa Real Estate, Tianyu Real Estate, Oceanwide Holdings, Sunac China, Jiayuan International, Xinli Holdings Group, Xiangsheng Holdings Group, Territorial Holdings, Longguang Group, Sanyun Group, Zhongliang Holdings and Xuhui Holdings Group.
However, a number of housing enterprises reached a settlement with creditors, or after the final ruling of the court, the final liquidation petition was withdrawn or the two sides entered into a grace agreement.
The so-called liquidation petition refers to the listed company’s excessive debts and operational difficulties for various reasons. Creditors or the company itself can submit a liquidation petition to the court, which will hear the liquidation petition. If the petition is passed, the court will issue a compulsory liquidation order to order the company to liquidate.
Debt extension
According to the monitoring data of the Central Finger Research Institute, as of December 31, 2022, the scale of real estate debt extension has reached 2087.3 yuan, involving 42 related real estate enterprises. In addition, many enterprises plan to launch debt restructuring plans.
According to the statistics of The Paper, up to now, three housing enterprises have successfully extended their domestic debts. Among them, Longguang, together with its subsidiaries, proposed the extension of 21 open market bonds, all of which were voted by the holders’ meeting; Sunac Real Estate Group Co., Ltd.’ s overall extension plan of domestic bonds totaling 16 billion yuan was voted by the bondholders’ meeting; In addition, R&F Property’s domestic and overseas bonds totaling about 46.7 billion yuan were all successfully extended.
According to the monitoring data of the Central Finger Research Institute, the debt repayment pressure of housing enterprises in 2023 is still relatively high. In 2023, the total amount of credit bonds and overseas debts due by real estate enterprises was 957.96 billion yuan, 70 billion yuan more than the previous year, and the scale of debt repayment by real estate enterprises increased. In particular, in the first quarter of 2023, in January and March, the scale of debt repayment of housing enterprises exceeded 100 billion yuan, and it also exceeded 100 billion yuan in April and July. In recent months, the pressure on debt repayment of housing enterprises was relatively high. At the same time, housing enterprises may still have the risk of debt default. Housing enterprises are under great pressure to repay debts, real estate sales have not stabilized and rebounded significantly, and some housing enterprises have limited financing support, so individual housing enterprises may still default on their debts.
Three arrows
In 2018, in order to support private enterprises to broaden financing channels, the People’s Bank of China, together with relevant departments, launched a "three arrows" policy combination from three main financing channels: credit, bonds and equity. In the second half of 2022, the financing environment of housing enterprises improved, especially in November, and the central government began to comprehensively strengthen the financing support for housing enterprises, and the "three arrows" made concerted efforts.
On November 1, 2022, China Bond Credit Enhancement convened a meeting of 21 private housing enterprises to promote the second batch of credit enhancement projects of more than 10 housing enterprises of about 20 billion yuan. This symposium is also the third time that the Dealers Association has held a symposium on private housing enterprises since August last year.
On November 21st of that year, the People’s Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a national symposium on credit work of commercial banks to study and deploy financial support to stabilize the economy. At the symposium, Pan Gongsheng, member of the Party Committee and vice president of the People’s Bank of China, introduced that on the basis of the special loan for "guaranteed delivery building" launched in the early stage, the People’s Bank of China will launch a loan support plan of 200 billion yuan for six commercial banks to provide commercial banks with zero-cost funds to encourage them to support the work of "guaranteed delivery building". The first arrow "credit" financing force.
On November 8, 2022, official website, a dealer association, announced that, with the support and guidance of the People’s Bank of China, the dealer association continued to promote and expand the "second arrow" to support private enterprises, including real estate enterprises, in order to implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, adhere to the "two unwavering" and support the healthy development of private enterprises. The relevant policies and measures issued by the Dealers Association are the "second arrow" — — Continuation and expansion of bond financing support tools for private enterprises.
On November 28th, 2022, CSRC decided to adjust and optimize five measures in equity financing, including resuming mergers and acquisitions and matching financing of listed companies involved in housing, resuming refinancing of listed real estate enterprises and listed companies involved in housing, adjusting and improving the overseas listing policy of real estate enterprises, further giving play to the role of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in revitalizing the existing assets of real estate enterprises, and actively playing the role of private equity investment funds. This is also considered by the industry to be the "third arrow". After the introduction of the "third arrow", many listed real estate enterprises and housing-related enterprises planned to refinance.
According to incomplete statistics, it at least includes Country Garden, Agile, Beixin Road and Bridge, Fuxing, Shimao, the new lake treasure, Tiandiyuan, Lujiazui, Vanke, Huaxia Happiness, Jinke, China Merchants Shekou, Jiakai City, Waigaoqiao, Huafa, Guancheng Datong, Greenland Holdings, Dima, gree real estate, Chinese Enterprises, Xincheng Development, Tibet City Investment, and Dexin China.
Buying a house by one person and helping the whole family.
In 2022, more and more cities introduced a new provident fund policy, making it clear that immediate family members can withdraw the housing provident fund to help buyers pay the purchase price or repay the mortgage, and implement "one person buying a house to help the whole family".
According to incomplete statistics of The Paper, by the end of 2022, At least including Shaoyang in Hunan, Chaozhou in Guangdong, Qinhuangdao in Hebei, Zhuhai in Guangdong, Ganzhou in Jiangxi, Cangzhou in Hebei, Chizhou in Anhui, Chuxiong in Yunnan, Tangshan in Hebei, Xianning in Hubei, Quanzhou in Fujian, Tianjin, Maanshan in Anhui, Shenzhen in Guangdong, Hainan, Xinyang in Henan, wuzhong in Ningxia, Huzhou in Zhejiang, Lianyungang in Jiangsu, Taizhou in Zhejiang, Dingxi in Gansu, Suining in Sichuan, Chuzhou in Anhui, Shanwei in Guangdong, Yinchuan in Ningxia and Sichuan. More than 30 local governments, such as Liaocheng in Shandong, Jingzhou in Hubei, Xingyang in Henan and Lai ‘an in Anhui, have issued new policies on provident fund loans. Many places mentioned in the policies that children can withdraw their parents’ provident fund when buying a house, and implement "one person buys a house to help the whole family".
Formally, the policy adjustment of "one person buying a house to help the whole family" is carried out from the aspects of helping to repay the loan, helping to withdraw the provident fund to pay the down payment, and withdrawing the relatives’ provident fund to pay the house purchase price. The industry believes that through the help of immediate family members, the economic pressure of buyers can be shared, the purchasing power of residents can be restored from the demand side, and the mood of residents buying houses can be boosted.
mainstay industry
At the end of December 2022, the central government reiterated that "real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy" and affirmed the importance of real estate, which will help to restore confidence in the real estate market.
On December 15th, 2022, Liu He, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China delivered a written speech at the fifth round of China-EU dialogue between business leaders and former senior officials. Liu He pointed out that we have great confidence in the overall improvement of China’s economy next year. Real estate is the pillar industry of the national economy. In view of the current downside risks, we have introduced some policies and are considering new measures to improve the balance sheet of the industry and guide the market expectation and confidence to pick up. In the coming period, China’s urbanization is still in a rapid development stage, and there is enough demand space to provide support for the stable development of the real estate industry.
On December 18, 2022, the relevant person in charge of the Central Finance Office made an in-depth interpretation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the current economic hot issues: the focus of the real estate policy next year (2023) is: First, we must fully recognize the importance of the real estate industry. Real estate is a pillar industry of national economy with long chain and wide coverage. There are still some restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand in housing consumption and other fields, and these consumption potentials should be released.
The industry believes that the stability of real estate is crucial to the stable recovery of macro-economy in 2023. Under the positioning of pillar industries, it is expected that the optimization and improvement of policies at both ends of real estate supply and demand will be more direct and rapid in the future, and the intensity is expected to be further increased.